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Patterson Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Patterson Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Patterson Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Patterson's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Patterson Business Description

Patterson logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1031 Mendota Heights Road, Saint Paul, MN, USA, 55120
Patterson is a leading dental distributor and wholesaler of consumable products and equipment operating through two business segments, Patterson Dental and Patterson Animal Health. The firm offers dental and veterinary practice management products, including office software products, technical, financial, and educational services, primarily to two highly fragmented market segments throughout the U.S. and Canada. The company began as a dental distributor in 1877 and expanded to become a major supplier of animal health products to vets and production companies through an acquisition of Animal Health International in 2015. Patterson also has a presence in the U.K. animal health market.
Executives
Mckoy Philip director 120 BROADWAY SUITE 200 SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Rogan Timothy E officer: President - Dental 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Shirley Eric R officer: President-Patterson Dental 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Zurbay Donald officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ST. JUDE MEDICAL, INC. ONE ST JUDE MEDICAL DRIVE ST. PAUL MN 55117
Malecha Francis Joseph director 9900 WEST 109TH STREET, SUITE 100 OVERLAND PARK KS 66210
Frohning Andrea L. officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 13515 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Frenzel Robert director 414 NICOLLET MALL MINNEAPOLIS MN 55401
Goedken Dennis W officer: Interim CFO 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Walchirk Mark S director, officer: President & CEO 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Pohlman Kevin M officer: President - Animal Health 822 7TH STREET, SUITE 740 GREELEY CO 80631
Blanco Alex N director ONE BAXTER PARKWAY DEERFIELD IL 60015
Misiak David G officer: President, Patterson Dental 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55120
Baker Kelly A officer: CHRO 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ST. PAUL MN 55120
Korsh Les B officer: VP, General Counsel 1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD ST. PAUL MN 55110
Adent John Edward officer: CEO - Subsidiary 822 7TH STREET, SUITE 740 GREELEY CO 80631

Patterson Headlines

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