Performant Financial (Performant Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Performant Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Performant Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Performant Financial (Performant Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Performant Financial Corp (NAS:PFMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

333 North Canyons Parkway, Livermore, CA, USA, 94551

Website

https://www.performantcorp.com

Performant Financial Corp provides technology-enabled recovery and related analytics services in the United States. The company provides its services on an outsourced basis where it handles many or all aspects of its clients' recovery processes. It uses technology-enabled services platform to provide recovery and analytics services in a range of markets for the identification and recovery of student loans, improper healthcare payments and delinquent state tax and federal treasury receivables. The services are primarily offered across a broad range of government and private clients in several markets. The revenue generated here is generally on success-based as it earns fees based on a percentage of the aggregate amount of funds that it enables the clients to recover.

Executives

Prescott Group Capital Management, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	1924 SOUTH UTICA, SUITE 1120, TULSA OK 74104-6429
Rohit Ramchandani	officer: Chief Financial Officer	333 NORTH CANYONS PARKWAY, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Ecmc Group, Inc.	10 percent owner	1 IMATION PLACE, BLDG 2, SUITE 392A, OAKDALE MN 55128
Pcp Managers Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3610, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Parthenon Dcs Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PARTHENON CAPITAL PARTNERS, FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Eric Yanagi	director	400 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, SUITE 526, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Pcp Managers, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O PARTHENON CAPITAL PARTNERS, FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3610, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Pcap Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PARTHENON CAPITAL PARTNERS, FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Pcap Partners Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PARTHENON CAPITAL PARTNERS, FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Parthenon Investors Ii. L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O PARTHENON CAPITAL PARTNERS, 400 EMBARCADERO CENTER, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
James Lacamp	director	333 NORTH CANYONS PARKWAY, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Prescott Group Aggressive Small Cap Lp	10 percent owner	1924 SOUTH IRICA SUITE 1120, TULSA OK 741046529
Prescott Group Aggressive Small Cap Master Fund Gp	10 percent owner	1924 S UTICA SUITE # 1120, TULSA OK 74104-6529
Prescott Group Aggressive Small Cap Ii Lp	10 percent owner	1924 S UTICA SUITE # 1120, TULSA OK 74104-6529
Phil Frohlich	10 percent owner	1924 SOUTH IRICA SUITE 1120, TULSA OK 741046529