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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Prospect Capital Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Prospect Capital (Prospect Capital) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
10 East 40th Street, 42nd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10016
Prospect Capital Corp is a closed-end investment company based in the United States. Its investment objective is to generate both current income and long-term capital appreciation through debt and equity investments. The company invests primarily in senior and subordinated debt and equity of private companies for acquisitions, divestitures, growth, development, recapitalizations, and other purposes. It makes investments, including lending in private equity, sponsored transactions, directly to companies, investments in structured credit, real estate, and syndicated debt.
Executives
| M Grier Eliasek |
director, officer: President and COO |
C/O PROSPECT ENERGY CORPORATION, 10 E. 40TH STREET, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Van Dask Kristin Lea |
officer: CFO, TREASURER, SECRETARY, CCO |
10 EAST 40TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| John F Barry |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O PROSPECT ENERGY CORPORATION, 10 EAST 40TH STREET, 42TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Eugene S Stark |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
GENERAL AMERICAN INVESTORS COMPANY, INC., 530 FIFTH AVE - 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| William Gremp |
director |
10 E. 40TH ST, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Brian H Oswald |
officer: CCO and Secretary, other: CCO and Secretary |
|
| Matthew C. Barry |
other: Family Insider |
10 EAST 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Graham Anderson |
director |
10 EAST 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Andrew C. Cooper |
director |
10 EAST 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Robert Everett |
other: VP |
10 EAST 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Simon Marom |
other: VP- Legal |
10 EAST 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Robert Kleinman |
other: Senior VP |
10 EAST 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| David Belzer |
other: Managing Director |
10 EAST 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Amir Friedman |
other: VP |
10 EAST 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| William Montgomery Cook |
other: Managing Director |
10 EAST 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
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