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Qualcomm Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Semiconductors subindustry, Qualcomm's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Qualcomm Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Semiconductors industry and Technology sector, Qualcomm's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Qualcomm's Predictability Rank falls into.



Qualcomm Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Qualcomm Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Qualcomm's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Qualcomm Business Description

Qualcomm logo
Industry
Technology » Semiconductors NAICS : 334118 SIC : 3577
Address
5775 Morehouse Drive, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121-1714
Qualcomm develops and licenses wireless technology and also designs chips for smartphones. The company's key patents revolve around CDMA and OFDMA technologies, which are standards in wireless communications that are the backbone of all 3G and 4G networks. The firm is a leader in 5G network technology as well. Qualcomm's IP is licensed by virtually all wireless device makers. The firm is also the world's largest wireless chip vendor, supplying nearly every premier handset maker with leading-edge processors.
Executives
Amon Cristiano R officer: President 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Rosenberg Donald J officer: EVP & General Counsel QUALCOMM INCORPORATED 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Rogers Alexander H officer: EVP & President, QTL 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Modoff Brian officer: EVP, Strategy and M&A 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Thompson James H officer: EVP, Engineering & CTO 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Mollenkopf Steven M director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Mclaughlin Mark D director C/O PALO ALTO NETWORKS, INC. 4401 GREAT AMERICA PKWY SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Miller Jamie S director GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY 5 NECCO STREET BOSTON MA 02210
Fields Mark director FORD MOTOR COMPANY ONE AMERICAN ROAD DEARBORN MI 48126
Smit Neil director C/O AMERICA ONLINE LATIN AMERICA, INC. 6600 N. ANDREWS AVE., SUITE 400 FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Palkhiwala Akash J. officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Polek Erin L officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Tricoire Jean-pascal director 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Ace Heather S officer: EVP, Human Resources 3721 VALLEY CENTRE DR SUITE 500 SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Rosenfeld Irene B director 110 SE 6TH STREET 20TH FLOOR FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301

Qualcomm Headlines

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