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Qualcomm Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Qualcomm Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Qualcomm Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Qualcomm's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Qualcomm Business Description

Qualcomm logo
Address
5775 Morehouse Drive, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121-1714
Qualcomm develops and licenses wireless technology and designs chips for smartphones. The company's key patents revolve around CDMA and OFDMA technologies, which are standards in wireless communications that are the backbone of all 3G and 4G networks. The firm is a leader in 5G network technology as well. Qualcomm's IP is licensed by virtually all wireless device makers. The firm is also the world's largest wireless chip vendor, supplying nearly every premier handset maker with leading-edge processors. Qualcomm also sells RF-front end modules into smartphones and chips into automotive and Internet of Things markets.
Executives
Cathey James J officer: Chief Commercial Officer 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Chaplin Ann C officer: General Counsel&Corp Secretary 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Acevedo Sylvia director 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Johnson Gregory N director C/O INTUIT INC. 2700 COAST AVENUE MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Tricoire Jean-pascal director 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Miller Jamie S director GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY 5 NECCO STREET BOSTON MA 02210
Ace Heather S officer: EVP, Human Resources 3721 VALLEY CENTRE DR SUITE 500 SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Palkhiwala Akash J. officer: SVP & Interim CFO 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Wise David officer: Interim CFO 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Polek Erin L officer: SVP Corporate Controller & CAO 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Anstice Martin B director 4650 CUSHING PARKWAY FREMONT CA 94538
Rosenfeld Irene B director 999 VANDERBILT BEACH ROAD SUITE 601 NAPLES FL 34108
Mollenkopf Steven M director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Smit Neil director C/O AMERICA ONLINE LATIN AMERICA, INC. 6600 N. ANDREWS AVE., SUITE 400 FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Fields Mark director FORD MOTOR COMPANY ONE AMERICAN ROAD DEARBORN MI 48126

Qualcomm Headlines

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