Starbucks (Starbucks) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Starbucks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Starbucks (Starbucks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Starbucks Corp (NAS:SBUX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SBUX:Peru SBUX:Mexico SBUX_KZ:Kazakhstan SBUX:Italy SRBd:UK 0QZH:UK SRB:Germany SRB:Germany SRB:Germany SRB:Germany SBUX:Chile SBUX:Canada SBUB34:Brazil SBUX:Austria SBUX:Argentina

Address

2401 Utah Avenue South, Seattle, WA, USA, 98134

Website

https://www.starbucks.com

Starbucks is one of the most widely recognized restaurant brands in the world, operating more than 38,000 stores across more than 80 countries as of the end of fiscal 2023. The firm operates in three segments: North America, international markets, and channel development (grocery and ready-to-drink beverage). The coffee chain generates revenue from company-operated stores, royalties, sales of equipment and products to license partners, ready-to-drink beverages, packaged coffee sales, and single-serve products.

Executives

Sara Kelly	officer: evp, chief partner officer	2401 UTAH AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98134
Rachel Ruggeri	officer: evp, cfo	2401 UTAH AVENUE SOUTH, #800, SEATTLE WA 98134
Michael Aaron Conway	officer: group president International	18 LOVETON CIRCLE, SPARKS MD 21152
Wei Zhang	director	RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bradley E Lerman	officer: evp, general counsel	MEDTRONIC, INC., 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MSLC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Beth Ford	director	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY SCHOLASTIC CORP, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Zabrina Jenkins	officer: Interim evp, general counsel	C/O RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENT CORP., 11250 EL CAMINO REAL. SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Clara Shih	director	2401 UTAH AVE S, # 800, SEATTLE WA 98134
Laxman Narasimhan	officer: ceo-elect	PEPSICO, INC., 700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Mellody L Hobson	director	C/O TELLABS, 1415 W DIEHL RD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Allison Richard E Jr	director	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Howard D Schultz	director, officer: chairman, president and ceo	2401 UTAH AVE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98134
Angela Lis	officer: evp, chief partner officer	2401 UTAH AVENUE SOUTH, EX6, SEATTLE WA 98134
Kevin R Johnson	director	2401 UTAH AVE. S, SUITE 800, SEATTLE WA 98134
Gina Woods	officer: evp, Public Affairs	2401 UTAH AVENUE SOUTH, #800, SEATTLE WA 98134