Shoe Carnival (Shoe Carnival) Predictability Rank

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What is Shoe Carnival Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shoe Carnival Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Shoe Carnival Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Shoe Carnival (Shoe Carnival) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Shoe Carnival Inc (NAS:SCVL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7500 East Columbia Street, Evansville, IN, USA, 47715

Website

https://www.shoecarnival.com

Shoe Carnival Inc is a family footwear retailer that offers a broad assortment of dress, casual and athletic footwear for men, women, and children with an emphasis on national name brands such as Nike, Skechers, Adidas, Puma, HEYDUDE, Converse, Vans, and Crocs. It operates a retail-focused business model that aims to deliver the footwear shopping experience with the national name brands desired by its customers. Its bricks-first, omnichannel approach provides customers easy access to a wide assortment of branded footwear for work, athletics, daily activities, and special events via a choice of delivery channel.

Executives

Delores B Weaver	10 percent owner	TWO STAMFORD PLAZA, 281 TRESSER BLVD P O BOX 1214, STAMFORD CT 06904-1214
Wayne J Weaver	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD	TWO STAMFORD PLAZA, 281 TRESSER BLVD P O BOX 1214, STAMFORD CT 06904-1214
Erik D Gast	officer: EVP - Chief Financial Officer	7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Andrea R. Guthrie	director	7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Diane Randolph	director	1500 SOLANA BLVD, SUITE 3400, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Charles B. Tomm	director	201 N. FRANKLIN STREET, SUITE 2800, TAMPA FL 33602
Kent A Kleeberger	director
W Kerry Jackson	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT - CFO
Timothy T Baker	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT -
Marc A. Chilton	officer: EVP-Chief Operations Officer	7500 E. COLUMBIA STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Patrick C. Edwards	officer: VP, CAO (PAO)	7500 E. COLUMBIA STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47715
James A Aschleman	director	300 N MERIDIAN ST STE 2700, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Carl N. Scibetta	officer: EVP - GENERAL MERCHANDISE MGR	7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Clifton E Sifford	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT -
Jeffrey C Gerstel	director	933 MACARTHUR BOULEVARD, MAHWAH NJ 07430