SouthState (SouthState) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SouthState Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SouthState (SouthState) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » SouthState Corp (NYSE:SSB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FJ5:Germany

Address

1101 First Street South, Suite 202, Winter Haven, FL, USA, 33880

Website

https://www.southstatebank.com

SouthState Corp is a United States-based bank holding company. It provides a wide range of banking services and products to its customers through a wholly-owned bank subsidiary, South State Bank. The Bank provides retail and commercial banking services, mortgage lending services, trust and investment services, and consumer finance loans through financial centers in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. These services include demand, time and savings deposits, lending and credit card servicing, ATM processing, and wealth management and trust services.

Executives

Greg A Lapointe	officer: President of SSB	520 GERVAIS STREET, COLUMBIA SC 29201
Page G Ruffner Jr	director
Douglas Lloyd Williams	officer: President, Atlanta Banking Grp	3280 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1600, ATLANTA GA 30305
John C Pollok	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O SCBT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 520 GERVAIS STREET, COLUMBIA SC 29201
Hill Robert R Jr	officer: President & CEO	C/O SCBT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 520 GERVAIS STREET, COLUMBIA SC 29201
Robert R Horger	director, officer: Chairman	C/O SCBT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 520 GERVAIS STREET, COLUMBIA SC 29201
Renee R Brooks	officer: CHIEF ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICER	C/O SCBT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 520 GERVAIS STREET, COLUMBIA SC 29201
Ronald M. Cofield	director	1101 FIRST STREET SOUTH, WINTER HAVEN FL 33880
Shantella E. Cooper	director	241 RALPH MCGILL BLVD., NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Douglas J. Hertz	director	3280 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1600, ATLANTA GA 30305
Ernest S Pinner	director
Matthews William E V	officer: Chief Financial Officer
John C Corbett	director, officer: CEO	1101 FIRST STREET SOUTH, SUITE 202, WINTER HAVEN FL 33880
Stephen Dean Young	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	42745 U.S. HIGWAY 27, DAVENPORT FL 33837
David G Salyers	director	1101 FIRST STREET SOUTH, SUITE 202, WINTER HAVEN FL 33880