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Strategic Education Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Education & Training Services subindustry, Strategic Education's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Strategic Education Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Education industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Strategic Education's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Strategic Education's Predictability Rank falls into.



Strategic Education Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Strategic Education Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Strategic Education's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Strategic Education Business Description

Strategic Education logo
Industry
Consumer Defensive » Education NAICS : 611310 SIC : 8299
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2303 Dulles Station Boulevard, Herndon, VA, USA, 20171
Strategic Education Inc is engaged in providing educational services. It offers flexible and affordable associate, bachelor's, master's, and doctoral programs. Strategic Education provides courses in the eastern United States. The group operates through segments namely: Strayer University Segment, Capella University Segment, and Australia/New Zealand Segment.
Executives
Grusky Robert R director C/O STRAYER EDUCATION INC 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD HERNDON VA 20171
Casteen John T Iii director 301 S. COLLEGE STREET 30TH FLOOR, NC0630 CHARLOTTE NC 28288-0630
Gilligan J Kevin director, Vice Chairman P O BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Fick Nathaniel C. director C/O STRAYER EDUCATION 2303 DULLES STATION BLVD. HERNDON VA 20171
Dallas H James director 127 PUBLIC SQUARE CLEVELAND OH 44114
Brogley Rita D director 225 SOUTH 6TH STREET, 9TH FLOOR MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Waite G Thomas Iii director C/O STRAYER EDUCATION INC 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD HERNDON VA 20171
Beason Charlotte F director C/O STRAYER EDUCATION INC 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD HERNDON VA 20171
Aprahamian Thomas J officer: Chief Accounting Officer 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD HERNDON VA 20171
Hokenson Christa officer: Chief Human Resources Officer C/O STRATEGIC EDUCATION, INC. 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD HERNDON VA 20171
Mcdonnell Raymond Karl director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O STRAYER EDUCATION INC 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD HERNDON VA 20171
Jackson Daniel Wayne officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O STRAYER EDUCATION INC. 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD HERNDON VA 20171
Watt Andrew E officer: Chief Operating Officer 225 SOUTH SIXTH STREET 9TH FLOOR MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Herraiz Lizette Benedi officer: General Counsel 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD HERNDON VA 20171
Silberman Robert S director, officer: Executive Chairman C/O STRAYER EDUCATION INC 2303 DULLES STATION BOULEVARD HERNDON VA 20171

Strategic Education Headlines

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