Seagate Technology Holdings (Seagate Technology Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Seagate Technology Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Seagate Technology Holdings (Seagate Technology Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (NAS:STX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

STX:Mexico 847:Germany 847:Germany 847:Germany STXH:Austria

Address

38/39 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin, IRL, D02 NX53

Website

https://www.seagate.com

Seagate is a leading supplier of hard disk drives for data storage to the enterprise and consumer markets. It forms a practical duopoly in the market with its chief rival, Western Digital; they are both vertically integrated.

Executives

Ban Seng Teh	officer: SVP, Sales	47488 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
Katherine Schuelke	officer: SVP, CLO & Corporate Secretary	47488 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
John Christopher Morris	officer: SVP, HDD & SDD Products & CTO	1280 DISC DRIVE, SHAKOPEE MN 55379
William D Mosley	officer: President & COO	SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY, 47488 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
Gianluca Romano	officer: EVP & CFO	47488 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
Dylan G. Haggart	director	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, FOURTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Edward J Zander	director	MOTOROLA, INC., 1303 E. ALGONQUIN ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60196
Kian Fatt Chong	officer: SVP, Global Operations	AVE 5, WOODLANDS U0 121
Jeffrey D. Nygaard	officer: Executive Vice President	47488 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
Robert A Bruggeworth	director	C/O RF MICRO DEVICES, INC., 7628 THORNDIKE ROAD, GREENSBORO NC 27409
Richard L Clemmer	director	P O BOX 34552, LAS VEGAS NV 89129
Stephen J Luczo	director, officer: Chairman and CEO
Jay L Geldmacher	director	5810 VAN ALLEN WAY, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Yolanda Lee Conyers	director	47488 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
Stephanie Tilenius	director	C/O IRONPLANET, INC., 4695 CHABOT DRIVE, SUITE 102, PLEASANTON CA 94588