Valley National Bancorp (Valley National Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Valley National Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Valley National Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Valley National Bancorp (Valley National Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Valley National Bancorp (NAS:VLY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VLYPO.PFD:USA VLYPP.PFD:USA VNB:Germany VNB:Germany

Address

One Penn Plaza, New York, NY, USA, 10119

Website

https://www.valley.com

Valley National Bancorp is a bank holding company whose principal wholly-owned subsidiary is Valley National Bank. It provides a full range of commercial, retail, and trust and investment services largely through its offices and ATM network throughout northern and central New Jersey, New York City and Long Island, Florida, and Alabama. The segments of the group are commercial lending, consumer lending, investment management, and corporate and other adjustments, of which key interest income is derived from the commercial lending segment. In recent years, the company has focused on acquiring companies that operate outside of traditional banking and has emphasized wealth and capital management.

Executives

Joseph Chillura	officer: SEVP, Chief Ret & Busn Bnkg Of	1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Kathleen C Perrott	director	VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP, 70 SPEEDWELL AVENUE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Suresh L Sani	director	1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Avner Mendelson	director	VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP, 1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Peter J Baum	director	1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Marc J Lenner	director	1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Ira Robbins	officer: EVP - Treasurer	1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Eric P Edelstein	director	17 BRENTWOOD DRIVE, N CALDWELL NJ 07006
Peter V Maio	director	VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP, 1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Melissa J Schultz	director	VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP, 1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Sidney S Williams	director	VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP, 1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Jeffrey S Wilks	director	C/O STATE BANCORP, INC., TWO JERICHO PLAZA, JERICHO NY 11753
Jennifer W Steans	director	50 EAST WASHINGTON STREET SUITE 400, C/O FINANCIAL INVESTMENTS CORPORATION, CHICAGO IL 60602
Dafna Landau	director	VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP, 1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470
Andrew B Abramson	director	1455 VALLEY ROAD, WAYNE NJ 07470