Nasdaq (Nasdaq) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nasdaq Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nasdaq (Nasdaq) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Nasdaq Inc (NAS:NDAQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NDAQ:Mexico NAQ:Germany NAQ:Germany NAQ:Germany N1DA34:Brazil NDAQ:Austria

Address

151 W. 42nd Street, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.nasdaq.com

Founded in 1971, Nasdaq is primarily known for its equity exchange, but in addition to its market-services business (about 35% of sales), the company sells and distributes market data as well as offers Nasdaq-branded indexes to asset managers and investors through its information-services segment (30%). Nasdaq's corporate-services business (20%) offers listing services and related investor relations products to publicly traded companies and through the company's market technology group (15%), Nasdaq facilitates the exchange operations of other exchanges throughout the world and provides financial compliance services.

Executives

Adenza Parent, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	ONE MARKET PLAZA, SPEAR TOWER, SUITE 2400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94150
Spaht Paul Holden Jr.	director	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, 20TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Thoma Bravo Ugp, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	110 N. WACKER DRIVE, 32ND FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Ann M Dennison	officer: Controller and Prin Acctg Ofcr	ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10006
Johan Torgeby	director	151 W. 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jeffery W Yabuki	director	255 FISERV DRIVE, BROOKFIELD WI 53045
Adena T Friedman	officer: Executive Vice President	1801 K STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20006
Michael R Splinter	director
Steven D Black	director	C/O JPMORGAN CHASE & CO., 270 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Bryan Everard Smith	officer: Executive Vice President	151 W. 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10036
Michelle Lynn Daly	officer: Controller and Prin Acctg Ofcr	151 W. 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10036
Brendan Brothers	officer: Interim Head of AFC	151 W. 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jeremy Skule	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, NEW YORK MD 20850
Bradley J Peterson	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10006
Pc Nelson Griggs	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10006