NL Industries (NL Industries) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NL Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NL Industries (NL Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » NL Industries Inc (NYSE:NL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5430 LBJ Freeway, Suite 1700, Dallas, TX, USA, 75240-2620

Website

https://www.nl-ind.com

NL Industries Inc operates in the component products industry through its majority-owned subsidiary, CompX International Inc. It manufactures engineered components that are sold to a range of industries, including recreational transportation, postal, office and institutional furniture, cabinetry, tool storage, healthcare, gas stations and vending equipment. CompX has three production facilities in the United States, through which it produces a precision ball bearing slide, security products, and ergonomic computer support systems. The company derives most of its revenue from Europe.

Executives

Kevin B Kramer	director	C/O STONERIGDGE INC., 9400 E. MARKET ST, WARREN OH 44484
Erica A. Austin	officer: VP, Employee Benefits	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240
Kristin B Mccoy	officer: EVP, Tax	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240
Amy A. Samford	officer: Executive VP and CFO	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240-2620
Gouveia Randall Colin	director	2225 W. CHANDLER BLVD.,, CHANDLER AZ 85224
Michael Shawn Simmons	officer: Executive Vice President	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240-2620
Bart W Reichert	officer: Vice President, Internal Audit	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240
Amy E. Ruf	officer: Vice President and Controller	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240-2620
Darci B Scott	officer: Vice President, Tax	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240
Bryan A. Hanley	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240-2620
Patty S. Brinda	officer: Vice President and Controller	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240
Patricia A. Kropp	officer: VP Employee Benefits	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240-2620
Thomas P Stafford	director	C/O WACKENHUT CORP, 4200 WACKENHUT DRIVE #100, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410-4243
Meredith W. Mendes	director	2901 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Powers John Read Iii	officer: VP and General Counsel	5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75240