Insperity (Insperity) Predictability Rank

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What is Insperity Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Insperity Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Insperity (Insperity) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Insperity Inc (NYSE:NSP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ASF:Germany

Address

19001 Crescent Springs Drive, Kingwood, TX, USA, 77339

Website

https://www.insperity.com

Insperity Inc is a company that primarily provides a wide range of human resources and business solutions that help businesses improve their performance. Small and midsize enterprises are the company's primary target customers. Most of the company's products are offered through the company's Workforce Optimization and Workforce Synchronization solutions, which comprise various human resource functions, such as payroll and employment administration, employee benefits and compensation, government compliance, performance management, training and development services, and human capital management. The company generates all of its revenue in the United States.

Executives

Ellen H Masterson	director	P O BOX 3247, HOUSTON TX 77253-3247
Richard G Rawson	director, officer: President	C/O INSPERITY, 19001 CRESCENT SPRINGS DR, KINGWOOD TX 77339
Arthur A Arizpe	officer: EVP of Client Services and COO	19001 CRESCENT SPRINGS DR, C/O INSPERITY, KINGWOOD TX 77339
Paul J Sarvadi	director, officer: Chairman of the Board & CEO	C/O INSPERITY, 19001 CRESCENT SPRINGS DR, KINGWOOD TX 77339
Daniel D Herink	officer: SVP Legal, Gen Counsel & Sec	19001 CRESCENT SPRINGS DRIVE, KINGWOOD TX 77339
James D Allison	officer: SVP of Gross Profit Operations	C/O INSPERITY, INC., 19001 CRESCENT SPRINGS DRIVE, KINGWOOD TX 77339
John M Morphy	director	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Douglas S Sharp	officer: SVP Finance, CFO & Treasurer	C/O INSPERITY, 19001 CRESCENT SPRINGS DR, KINGWOOD TX 77339
Tim Clifford	director	C/O CARBONITE, INC., 177 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02115
Jay E Mincks	officer: EVP of Sales & Marketing	C/O INSPERITY, 19001 CRESCENT SPRINGS DR, KINGWOOD TX 77339
Eli Jones	director	200 WEST CONGRESS STREET, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Randall Mehl	director	8620 N DEAN CIR, RIVER HILLS WI 53217
Latha Ramchand	director	19001 CRESCENT SPRINGS DRIVE, KINGWOOD TX 77339
John L Lumelleau	director	19001 CRESCENT SPRINGS DRIVE, KINGWOOD TX 77339
Austin P Young	director	6200 ARNOT, HOUSTON TX 77007