What is Antero Resources Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Antero Resources Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Antero Resources (Antero Resources) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1615 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO, USA, 80202
Antero Resources, based in Denver, engages in the exploration for and production of natural gas and natural gas liquids in the United States and Canada. At the end of 2022, the company reported proven reserves of 17.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent. Production averaged approximately 3,205 million cubic feet of equivalent a day in 2022 at a ratio of 32% liquids and 68% natural gas.
Executives
| Sheri Pearce |
officer: See Remarks |
1615 WYNKOOP ST., DENVER CO 80202 |
| Michael N. Kennedy |
officer: Senior Vice President Finance |
707 - 17TH STREET, SUITE 3600, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Keenan W Howard Jr |
director |
410 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Robert J Clark |
director |
1401 17TH STREET, SUITE 1200, DENVER CO 80202 |
| W Patrick Ash |
officer: See Remarks |
400 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E. SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77060 |
| Yvette K Schultz |
officer: See Remarks. |
1615 WYNKOOP STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Brenda R Schroer |
director |
600 W. ILLINOIS AVENUE, ONE CONCHO CENTER, MIDLAND TX 79701 |
| Jacqueline C Mutschler |
director |
2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| Vicky Sutil |
director |
10889 WILSHIRE BLVD., LOS ANGELES CA 90024 |
| Tyree Thomas B Jr |
director |
410 - 17TH STREET, SUITE 1400, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Warburg Pincus Llc |
10 percent owner |
450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| James R. Levy |
director |
C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Warburg Pincus Private Equity X O&g, L.p. |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Peter Kagan |
director |
C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Paul M Rady |
director, officer: See Remarks |
1625 17TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
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