China Green Agriculture (China Green Agriculture) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Green Agriculture Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China Green Agriculture (China Green Agriculture) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » China Green Agriculture Inc (NYSE:CGA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GR0A:Germany

Address

South Taibai Road, 3rd Floor, Borough A, Block A. No. 181, Shaanxi Province, Xi’an, CHN, 710065

Website

http://www.cgagri.com

China Green Agriculture Inc is engaged in the business of fertilizer and agricultural products. It involves the research, development, production, distribution, and sale of humic acid-based compound fertilizer, blended fertilizer, organic compound fertilizer, slow-release fertilizers, concentrated water-soluble fertilizers, and mixed organic-inorganic compound fertilizer and the development, production, and distribution of agricultural products, such as top-grade fruits, vegetables, flowers and colored seedlings in China. The company operates in three segments: Fertilizer products (Jinong), Fertilizer products (Gufeng), and agricultural products (Yuxing). All of its operations are conducted in China.

Executives

Zhibiao Pan	officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	NO.39, GROUP NO.1 GANGANG VILLAGE, WULIE COUNTY, DONGTAI F4 224200
Caihua Ran	10 percent owner, other: Director's Mother	GROUP NO.4, XIAOHE VILLAGE, TOWNSHIP OF XIAOHE, YOUYANG COUNTY, CHONGQING F4 409800
Xiuzhen Xu	10 percent owner, other: Co-CEO's Mother	NO.39, GROUP NO.1 GANGANG VILLAGEN, LIANYI COUNTY, DONGTAI F4 224200
Jian Huang	director	676-GROUP 4, XIAOHE VILLAGE, TOWNSHIP OF XIAOHE, YOUYANG COUNTY, CHONGQING F4 409800
Xiaolai Li	director	NO. 20 BALUN VILLAGE, QIONGSHAN DISTRICT, HAIKOU F4 571100
Zhang Shiyu	director	1919 MARKET ST., UNIT 812, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Shaanxi Baoyu Science & Technology Investment Co	10 percent owner	86 86 GAOXIN ROAD B-1-6F, XI'AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 710075
Daqing Zhu	director	3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A. NO. 181,, SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD, XI'AN, SHAANXI F4 710065
Zhuoyu Li	officer: President	3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A, NO. 181, SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD, XI'AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 710065
Yiru Shi	director	1217 S CATALINA AVENUE, REDONDO BEACH CA 90277
Ale Fan	director	3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A. NO. 181, SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD, XI?AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 PRC 710065
Jianlei Shen	director	3RD FLOOR, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A. NO. 181, SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD, XI?AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 PRC 710065
Ken Ren	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3RD FL, BOROUGH A, BLOCK A, NO. 181 SOUTH TAIBAI ROAD, XI'AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 710065
Yizhao Zhang	director	45 OLD MILLSTONE DRIVE, NIT 6, EAST WINDSOR NJ 08520
Robert B Fields	director	215 EAST 68TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021