Civeo (CVEO) Predictability Rank

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What is Civeo Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Civeo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Civeo (CVEO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Civeo Corp (NYSE:CVEO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

44C1:Germany

Address

333 Clay Street, Three Allen Center, Suite 4980, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.civeo.com

Civeo Corp provides hospitality services to the natural resources industry in Canada, Australia and the United States. The company provides a full suite of services for guests, including lodging, catering and food service, housekeeping and maintenance at accommodation facilities that the company or its customers own. The company provides services that support the day-to-day operations of these facilities, such as laundry, facility management and maintenance, water and wastewater treatment, power generation, communication systems, security and logistics. The company operates in active oil, metallurgical coal, liquefied natural gas and iron ore-producing regions. The company operates in three reportable business segments Canada, Australia and the United States.

Executives

Moore Constance B	director	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77002
Lance Torgerson	10 percent owner	596 MCCLURE ROAD, KELOWNA A1 V1W 1H3
Martin Lambert	director	333 CLAY STREET, STE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77002
Allan Schoening	officer: See Remarks	333 CLAY STREET, #4980, HOUSTON TX 77002
Peter Mccann	officer: Sr. Vice President, Australia	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77002
Jagdish Grewal	director	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77065
Michael Montelongo	director	203 EAST MAIN STREET, SPARTANBURG SC 29319
Bradley J Dodson	director, officer: President, CEO, and Director	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77002
Barclay Brewer	officer: Vice President and Controller	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77002
Ronald Gilbertson	director	333 CLAY STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Tammy Torgerson	10 percent owner	596 MCCLURE ROAD, KELOWNA A1 V1W 1H3
Torgerson Family Trust	10 percent owner	596 MCCLURE ROAD, KELOWNA A1 V1W 1H3
Timothy O Wall	director	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77002
Frank Steininger	officer: See Remarks	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77002
Mike Ridley	officer: See Remarks	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77002