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Chevron Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Chevron Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Chevron Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Chevron's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Chevron Business Description

Chevron logo
Address
6001 Bollinger Canyon Road, San Ramon, CA, USA, 94583-2324
Chevron is an integrated energy company with exploration, production, and refining operations worldwide. It is the second- largest oil company in the United States with production of 3.1 million of barrels of oil equivalent a day, including 7.7 million cubic feet a day of natural gas and 1.8 million of barrels of liquids a day. Production activities take place in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. Its refineries are in the U.S. and Asia for total refining capacity of 1.8 million barrels of oil a day. Proven reserves at year-end 2021 stood at 11.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, including 6.1 billion barrels of liquids and 30.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Executives
Bonner Eimear P officer: Vice President 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Hewson Marillyn A director C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION PO BOX 14662 READING PA 19612-4662
Inchausti David A officer: Vice Pres. and Comptroller 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Parfitt Colin E officer: Vice President 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Morris Rhonda J officer: Vice President 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Reed Debra L director 488 8TH AVENUE SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Umpleby Iii Donald J director 510 LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 100 DEERFIELD IL 60015
Nelson Mark A officer: Vice President 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Frank John director C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 333 SOUTH GRAND 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Austin Wanda M director 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Moyo Dambisa F director 10200 S. DEANZA BOULEVARD CUPERTINO CA 95014
Ourada Jeanette L officer: Vice Pres. and Comptroller 6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD SAN RAMON CA 94583
Thulin Inge G director 1250 5TH AVENUE SOUTH NAPLES FL 34102
Cummings Alexander B Jr director
Huntsman Jon M Jr director 500 HUNTSMAN WAY SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108

Chevron Headlines

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