Dun & Bradstreet Holdings (Dun & Bradstreet Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dun & Bradstreet Holdings (Dun & Bradstreet Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Inc (NYSE:DNB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5335 Gate Parkway, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32256

Website

https://www.dnb.com

Dun & Bradstreet Holdings Inc is a provider of business decisioning data and analytics. The company operates in two segments: North America, which offers Finance & Risk and Sales & Marketing data, analytics, and business insights in the United States and Canada; and International, which offers Finance & Risk and Sales & Marketing data, analytics, and business insights directly in the U.K, Europe, Greater China, India and indirectly through its WWN alliances. The company generates maximum revenue from the North American region. Other services provided by the company include digital marketing, sales acceleration, and risk management among others.

Executives

Thomas H. Lee Equity Fund Viii, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P., 100 FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Thomas H. Lee Advisors, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P., 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Anthony Jr Pietrontone	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O DUN & BRADSTREET HOLDINGS, INC., 5335 GATE PARKWAY, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Kirsten Marie Kliphouse	director	531 SOUTH SPRING STREET, BURLINGTON NC 27215
Bryan T. Hipsher	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DUN & BRADSTREET HOLDINGS, INC., 5335 GATE PARKWAY, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Foley William P Ii	director, 10 percent owner, other: Chairman of the Board	FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC., 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Anthony M Jabbour	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	601 RIVERSIDE AVE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Richard N Massey	director	900 S. SHACKLEFORD ROAD, SUITE 401, LITTLE ROCK AR 72211
Virginia Green Gomez	officer: President, North America	5335 GATE PKWY, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Cannae Holdings, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O CANNAE HOLDINGS, INC., 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 89134
Chinh Chu	director, 10 percent owner	THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Thl Equity Fund Viii Investors (d&b), L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P., 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Black Knight Financial Services, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Dnb Holdco, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 89134
Black Knight, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204