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Franklin Covey Co Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Consulting Services subindustry, Franklin Covey Co's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Franklin Covey Co Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Franklin Covey Co's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Franklin Covey Co's Predictability Rank falls into.



Franklin Covey Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Franklin Covey Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Franklin Covey Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Franklin Covey Co Business Description

Franklin Covey Co logo
Industry
Industrials » Business Services NAICS : 541611 SIC : 8742
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2200 West Parkway Boulevard, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84119-2331
Franklin Covey Co is a global company focused on organizational performance improvement. It focuses on providing time management and effectiveness training for individuals and corporations via online training as well as in-person workshops and events. The company provides training and consulting services in the areas of leadership, execution, productivity, trust, sales performance, customer loyalty, and educational improvement. It operates in the business segments of Direct Offices, Education practice and International Licensees. The company derives revenue from providing training and consulting services, and through the selling of books, audio media, and other related products. It has a business presence in the United States and other international countries.
Executives
Whitman Robert A director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 4200 TEXAS COMMERCE TOWER WEST 2200 ROSS AVE DALLAS TX 75201
Young Stephen D officer: Chief Financial Officer PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: YOUNG STEPHEN D a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Davis Clifton Todd officer: VP People Services 2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD. SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Covey Michael Sean Merrill officer: SVP Innovations and Marketing 2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD. SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Miller Scott Jeffery officer: EVP Bus Development/Marketing 2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD. SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Dom Colleen D officer: EVP Operations 2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Walker Paul S officer: EVP, Direct Offices Division 2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD. SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Stepp Esther Kay director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: STEPP ESTHER KAY a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Phillips Nancy R director 1515 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10036
Fung Michael director 2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Mcnamara Donald J director 4200 TEXAS COMMERCE TOWER WEST 2200 ROSS AVE SUITE 4200 DALLAS TX 75201
Chow Anne H director 2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD. SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Heiner Dennis Grant director 2220 WEST PARKWAY BLVD SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Van Bever Derek C M director 2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD. SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Peterson Joel Clinton director C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101

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