Franklin Covey Co (Franklin Covey Co) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1992. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Franklin Covey Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Franklin Covey Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Franklin Covey Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Franklin Covey Co (Franklin Covey Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Franklin Covey Co (NYSE:FC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2200 West Parkway Boulevard, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84119-2331

Website

https://www.franklincovey.com

Franklin Covey Co is a global company focused on organizational performance improvement. It focuses on providing time management and effectiveness training for individuals and corporations via online training as well as in-person workshops and events. The company provides training and consulting services in the areas of leadership, execution, productivity, trust, sales performance, customer loyalty, and educational improvement. It operates in the business segments of Direct Offices, Education practice, and International Licensees. The company derives revenue from providing training and consulting services, and through the selling of books, audio media, and other related products. It has a business presence in the United States and other international countries.

Executives

Meisha Sherman	officer: CPO	2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119-2099
Jennifer C. Colosimo	officer: President, Enterprise Division	2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Efrain Rivera	director	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Paul S Walker	director, officer: CEO, Director	2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Covey Michael Sean Merrill	officer: President, Education Division	2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Dom Colleen D	officer: COO	2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Craig Cuffie	director	2200 WEST PARKWAY BOULEVARD, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Esther Kay Stepp	director
Nancy R Phillips	director	1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Michael Fung	director	2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Donald J Mcnamara	director	4200 TEXAS COMMERCE TOWER WEST, 2200 ROSS AVE SUITE 4200, DALLAS TX 75201
Knowledge Capital Investment Group	10 percent owner	4200 CHASE TOWER WEST, 2200 ROSS AVENUE, DALLAS TX 75201
Van Bever Derek C M	director	2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Scott Jeffery Miller	officer: EVP Bus Development/Marketing	2200 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Joel Clinton Peterson	director	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101