FTI Consulting (FTI Consulting) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1996. Start your Free Trial

What is FTI Consulting Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FTI Consulting Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

FTI Consulting Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of FTI Consulting's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

FTI Consulting (FTI Consulting) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » FTI Consulting Inc (NYSE:FCN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FCQ:Germany

Address

555 12th Street NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC, USA, 20004

Website

https://www.fticonsulting.com

FTI Consulting Inc is a firm that generates its sales by providing professional business advisory services to customers. The company operates through five segments, namely corporate finance and restructuring, forensic and litigation consulting, economic consulting, technology, and strategic communications. Customers of the company come from a wide array of sectors, including construction, energy and power, environmental, financial institutions, healthcare and life science, insurance, real estate and infrastructure, retail and consumer products, telecom, media, and technology. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from serving customers in the United States.

Executives

Holly Paul	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	6016 KINGSFORD ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20817
Ajay Sabherwal	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FAIRPOINT COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 521 E. MOREHEAD STREET, SUITE 500, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Paul Alderman Linton	officer: Chief Strategy/Transf. Officer	5915 SONOMA ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20817
Mark S. Bartlett	director	4701 WEST GREENFIELD AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53214
Brenda J Bacon	director	909 COMMERCE ROAD, ANNAPOLIS MD 21403
Steven Henry Gunby	director, officer: President & CEO	9508 HEMSWELL PLACE, POTOMAC MD 20854
Elsy Lisa Boglioli	director	555 12TH STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Curtis P Lu	officer: General Counsel	1203 STONNELL PLACE, ALEXANDRIA VA 22302
Vernon James Ellis	director	49 QUEENS GATE TERRACE, LONDON X0 SW7 5PN
Claudio Costamagna	director	VIA SEBETO 4, MILANO L6 20123
Stephen C Robinson	director	11780 U.S. HIGHWAY 1, SUITE 600, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33408
Nicole S Jones	director	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL18Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Nicholas C Fanandakis	director	1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19898
Gerard E Holthaus	director	3129 BLENDON ROAD, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Brendan J Keating	officer: CAO and Controller	C/O FTI CONSULTING INC, 555 12TH STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004