Ferguson (Ferguson) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ferguson Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ferguson (Ferguson) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Ferguson PLC (NYSE:FERG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FERGl:UK FERG:UK 24W5:Germany

Address

1020 Eskdale Road, Winnersh Triangle, Wokingham, Berkshire, GBR, RG41 5TS

Website

https://www.fergusonplc.com

Ferguson distributes plumbing and HVAC products primarily to repair, maintenance and improvement, new construction, and civil infrastructure markets. It serves over 1 million customers and sources products from 37,000 suppliers. Ferguson engages customers through approximately 1,700 North American branches, over the phone, online, and in residential showrooms. In fiscal 2023, Ferguson derived 95% of its nearly $30 billion of sales in the U.S. According to Modern Distribution Management, Ferguson is the largest industrial and construction distributor in North America. The firm sold its U.K. business in 2021 and is now solely focused on the North American market.

Executives

Kevin Michael Murphy	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
Samantha J Long	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
Ian T. Graham	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
Jake Schlicher	officer: See Remarks	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
Richard Winckler	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
Michael Jacobs	officer: Senior VP of Supply Chain	33 COFFEE LANE, WATERBURY VT 05676
Garland Williams	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
Thees William T. Jr	officer: See Remarks	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
Geoff Drabble	director, other: Chairman	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
James A. Paisley	officer: See Remarks	500 VOLVO PARKWAY, CHESAPEAKE VA 23320
William Brundage	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
Victoria Morrissey	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
Brian May	director	C/O FERGUSON PLC, 1020 ESKDALE ROAD, WINNERSH TRIANGLE, WOKINGHAM, BERKSHIRE X0 RG41 5TS
Alan J. Murray	director	11125 GULF SHORE DRIVE, NAPLES FL 34108
James S Metcalf	director	USG CORP, 125 S FRANKLIN STREET DEPT 188, CHICAGO IL 60606