Guidewire Software (Guidewire Software) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guidewire Software Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Guidewire Software (Guidewire Software) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Guidewire Software Inc (NYSE:GWRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0GS:Germany 0GS:Germany

Address

970 Park Pl., Suite 200, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94403

Website

https://www.guidewire.com

Guidewire Software provides software solutions for property and casualty insurers. Flagship product InsuranceSuite is an on-premises system of record and comprises ClaimCenter, a claims management system; PolicyCenter, a policy management system including policy definitions, quotas, issuance, maintenance, and renewal; and BillingCenter, for billing management, payment plans, and agent commissions. The company also offers InsuranceNow, a cloud-based offering, as well as a variety of other add-on applications.

Executives

Jeffrey Elliott Cooper	officer: Interim CFO	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 970 PARK PL, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
James Winston King	officer: Chief Admin Officer, Gen Couns	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 970 PARK PL, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Priscilla Hung	officer: PRESIDENT & COO	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 970 PARK PL, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
John P Mullen	officer: President & CRO	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 970 PARK PL, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Michael George Rosenbaum	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 970 PARK PL, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
David S Bauer	director	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 2850 S DELAWARE STREET, S-400, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Brown Andrew William Fraser	director	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 970 PARK PL, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Marcus Ryu	director	2850 S DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 400, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Michael C Keller	director	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 2850 S. DELAWARE ST. STE 400, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Michael Polelle	officer: Chief Delivery Officer	2850 S DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 400, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Rajani Ramanathan	director	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 2850 S DELAWARE STREET, S-400, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Odowd Frank E Jr	officer: Chief Sales Officer	GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 2850 S. DELAWARE ST. STE 400, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Paul Lavin	director	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 2850 S. DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 400, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Steven P. Sherry	officer: Chief Sales Officer	GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 2850 S. DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 400, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Margaret Dillon	director	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 2850 DELAWARE ST. STE 400, SAN MATEO CA 94403