Hess (HES) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hess Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hess (HES) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Hess Corp (NYSE:HES) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AHC:Germany AHC:Germany HES:Austria

Address

1185 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.hess.com

Hess is an independent oil and gas producer with key assets in the Bakken Shale, Guyana, the Gulf of Mexico, and Southeast Asia. At the end of 2022, the company reported net proved reserves of 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Net production averaged 344 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022, at a ratio of 72% oil and natural gas liquids and 28% natural gas.

Executives

Barbara J Lowery-yilmaz	officer: Senior Vice President	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Andrew P Slentz	officer: Senior Vice President	1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Gregory P. Hill	officer: Executive Vice President	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
John P Rielly	officer: Senior Vice President	1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Richard D. Lynch	officer: Senior Vice President	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Timothy B. Goodell	director, officer: Executive Vice President	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Geurt G Schoonman	officer: Senior Vice President	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
John B Hess	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board and CEO	C/O HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Lisa Glatch	director	EVOQUA WATER TECHNOLOGIES CORP., 210 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Raymond J Mcguire	director	5 GIRALDA FARMS, MADISON NJ 07940
Marc S Lipschultz	director	C/O BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Karyn F. Ovelmen	director	STATIONSPLEIN 45, ROTTERDAM P7 3013AK
Michael R Turner	officer: Senior Vice President	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Terrence J. Checki	director	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Edith E Holiday	director	FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC, 901 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD 6TH FL, SAN MATEO CA 94404