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Invesco Highome 2024 Target Term (Invesco Highome 2024 Target Term) Predictability Rank


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What is Invesco Highome 2024 Target Term Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Invesco Highome 2024 Target Term Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Invesco Highome 2024 Target Term Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Invesco Highome 2024 Target Term (Invesco Highome 2024 Target Term) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Invesco High Income 2024 Target Term (NYSE:IHTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TTP PGZ MFD RSF FAM CXH GEG LRFC VLT IAE BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1555 Peachtree Street, North East, Suite 1800, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30309
Website
https://www.invesco.com
Invesco High Income 2024 Target Term is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The investment objectives of the company are to provide a high level of current income and to return approximately $9.835 per share to common shareholders. The company invests in securities collateralized by loans secured by real properties and other real estate related debt securities.
Executives
Glenn Eugene Brightman officer: President & PEO 570 CARILLON PARKWAY, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716
Stephanie Butcher officer: Senior Vice President 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, ATLANTA GA 30309
Tony Wong director, officer: Senior Vice President 1331 SPRING STREET NW, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Melanie Ringold officer: SVP, CLO and Secretary 1555 PEACHTREE STREE NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Mark William Gregson officer: Chief Accounting Officer 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE, ATLANTA GA 30309
Terry Vacheron officer: Chief Financial Officer 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Bordewick James R Jr officer: Senior Officer & SVP C/O BANC OF AMERICA INVESTMENT ADVISORS, 100 FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Adrien Deberghes officer: Vice President,PFO & Treasurer 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Laura Allison Dukes officer: SMD and CFO 780 JOHNSON FERRY ROAD, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30342
Robert C Troccoli other: Trustee 22 FOREST STREET, SCARBOROUGH ME 04074
Meadows Colin director 1360 PEACHTREE STREET, ATLANTA GA 30309
Kevin M Carome director
Annette Lege director, officer: CFO & CAO 1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Loren M Starr director
Todd F Kuehl officer: Chief Compliance officer 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE, ATLANTA GA 30309

Invesco Highome 2024 Target Term (Invesco Highome 2024 Target Term) Headlines

From GuruFocus

SIT Investment Associates Inc Reduces Stake in Invesco High Income 2024 Target Term

By GuruFocus Research • 11-16-2023