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Leidos Holdings Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Information Technology Services subindustry, Leidos Holdings's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Leidos Holdings Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Leidos Holdings's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Leidos Holdings's Predictability Rank falls into.



Leidos Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Leidos Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Leidos Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Leidos Holdings Business Description

Leidos Holdings logo
Industry
Technology » Software NAICS : 541513 SIC : 7373
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
11951 Freedom Drive, Reston, VA, USA, 20190
Leidos Holdings Inc is engaged in scientific, engineering, system integration, technical services, and solutions to various government entities and highly regulated industries, including the U.S. Department of Defense, Intelligence Community and the British Ministry of Defense. Areas of focus include intelligence and surveillance, cybersecurity, complex logistics, energy, and health.
Executives
John Miriam E director 7011 EAST AVENUE LIVERMORE CA 94550
Moos James Robert officer: Group President 11951 FREEDOM DRIVE RESTON VA 20190
Kraemer Harry M Jansen Jr director DENTSPLY SIRONA INC. 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Krone Roger A director, officer: CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KRONE ROGER A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Cage Christopher R officer: SVP and Corporate Controller 11951 FREEDOM DRIVE RESTON VA 20190
Kendall Frank Iii director 11951 FREEDOM DRIVE RESTON VA 20190
Reagan James officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer C/O DELTEK 13880 DULLES CORNER LANE HERNDON VA 20171
Howe Jerald S Jr officer: Executive VP & General Counsel PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: HOWE JERALD S JR a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Williams Noel B director ONE PARK PLAZA NASHVILLE TN 37203
Schmanske Mary Vicki officer: Group President 11951 FREEDOM DRIVE RESTON VA 20190
Porter Elizabeth A officer: Group President 1750 PRESIDENTS STREET RESTON VA 20190
Stevens Roy E officer: Chief of Business Development 11951 FREEDOM DRIVE RESTON VA 20190
May Gary Stephen director 11951 FREEDOM DRIVE RESTON VA 20190
Fubini David G director D.G. FUBINI CONSULTANTS, LLC 80 SEARS ROAD BROOKLINE MA 02445
Stalnecker Susan M director TWO N NINTHST ALLENTOWN PA 18101

Leidos Holdings Headlines

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