Lear (LEA) Predictability Rank

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What is Lear Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lear Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lear Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lear (LEA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Lear Corp (NYSE:LEA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LE6N:Germany

Address

21557 Telegraph Road, Southfield, MI, USA, 48033

Website

https://www.lear.com

Lear designs, develops, and manufactures automotive seating and electrical systems and components. Seating components include frames and mechanisms, covers (leather and woven fabric), seat heating and cooling, foam, and headrests. Automotive electrical distribution and connection systems and electronic systems include wiring harnesses, terminals and connectors, on-board battery chargers, high-voltage battery management systems, high-voltage power distribution systems, domain controllers, telematics control units, gateway modules, vehicle positioning for automated and autonomous driving, embedded control software, cloud and mobile device software and services, and cybersecurity. Lear's largest customer and regional market is GM and North America at 20% and 44% of 2022 revenue, respectively.

Executives

Raymond E Scott	director, officer: President & CEO
Carl A. Esposito	officer: SVP & President, E-Systems	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Jason M Cardew	officer: SVP & CFO	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Frank C Orsini	officer: EVP & President, Seating	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Mallett Conrad L Jr	director
Greg C Smith	director	FORD MOTOR COMPANY, 21175 OAKWOOD BLVD, DEARBORN MI 48124
Marianne Vidershain	officer: VP, Treasurer	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Jonathan F Foster	director	777 THIRD AVE, 30TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017
Thomas A Didonato	officer: SVP & CAO	AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS, INC., 150 THORN HILL DRIVE, WARRENDALE PA 15095
Alicia J. Davis	officer: SVP, Corp Dev & Inv Relations	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Roger A Krone	director
Patricia L Lewis	director	C/O UNITEDHEALTH GROUP, 9900 BREN ROAD EAST, MN008-T502, MINNETONKA MN 55343
Bradley M Halverson	director	100 N.E. ADAMS STREET, PEORIA IL 61629
Shari L Burgess	officer: VP & Treasurer
Harry Albert Kemp	officer: SVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033