GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » USA » NYSE » Medtronic PLC (NYSE:MDT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Switch to:

Medtronic Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1980. Start your Free Trial
1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Medtronic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Medtronic Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Medtronic's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Medtronic Business Description

Medtronic logo
Address
Lower Hatch Street, 20 On Hatch, Dublin, IRL, 2
One of the largest medical device companies, Medtronic develops and manufactures therapeutic medical devices for chronic diseases. Its portfolio includes pacemakers, defibrillators, heart valves, stents, insulin pumps, spinal fixation devices, neurovascular products, advanced energy, and surgical tools. The company markets its products to healthcare institutions and physicians in the United States and overseas. Foreign sales account for almost 50% of the company's total sales.
Executives
Fong Ivan K officer: EVP GENERAL COUNSEL & SECR 3M CENTER ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Kirk Jennifer M officer: Chief Accounting Officer 5 GREENWAY PLAZA SUITE 110 HOUSTON TX 77046
Lofton Kevin E director GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. 333 LAKESIDE DRIVE FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Wall Brett A. officer: EVP & Group Pres Restora Thera 710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Salmon Sean officer: EVP & Group President Diabetes MEDTRONIC PLC, 710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Goldsmith Andrea Jo director 1220 AUGUSTA DRIVE SUITE 600 HOUSTON TX 77057
Liddicoat John R officer: EVP & President of Americas MEDTRONIC PLC 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
White Robert John officer: EVP & President MITG MEDTRONIC PLC 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MS LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Parkhill Karen L officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 1717 MAIN STREET, MC 6402 DALLAS TX 75201
Reddy Preetha director APOLLO HOSPITALS 21 GREAMS LN, OFF GREAMS RD CHENNAI K7 600006
Ellis Gary Lee officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer THE TORO COMPANY 8111 LYNDALE AVENUE SOUTH BLOOMINGTON MN 55420
Hanson Bryan C officer: EVP AND PRESIDENT, COVIDIEN ZIMMER BIOMET HOLDINGS 345 E. MAIN STREET WARSAW IN 46580
Hakami Hooman officer: EVP & Group President Diabetes 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MSLC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Oconnell Christopher J officer: See Remarks MEDTRONIC, INC. 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Lenehan James T director C/O MEDTRONIC INC 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MS LC300 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432

Medtronic Headlines

From GuruFocus

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)