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Myovant Sciences Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Myovant Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Myovant Sciences Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Myovant Sciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Myovant Sciences Business Description

Myovant Sciences logo
Industry
Healthcare » Biotechnology NAICS : 541714 SIC : 2834
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
11-12 St. James’s Square, Suite 1, 3rd Floor, London, GBR, SW1Y 4LB
Myovant Sciences Ltd is a healthcare company focused on redefining care for women and for men. The company's lead product candidate is relugolix, a once-daily, oral GnRH receptor antagonist. It has three late-stage clinical programs for relugolix in uterine fibroids, endometriosis, and prostate cancer. The company is also developing MVT-602, an oligopeptide kisspeptin-1 receptor agonist, that has completed a Phase 2a study for the treatment of female infertility as part of assisted reproduction.
Executives
Potter Myrtle S director 10 FINDERNE AVE BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Guinan Mark director C/O QUEST DIAGNOSTICS 500 PLAZA DRIVE SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Arjona Ferreira Juan Camilo officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC. 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, 9TH FLOOR BRISBANE CA 94005
Curran Terrie director C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC. 320 WEST 37TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10018
Gulfo Adele M. director ONE NEENAH CENTER, 4TH FLOOR P.O. BOX 669 NEENAH WI 54957
Sebelius Kathleen director C/O DERMIRA, INC. 275 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, SUITE 150 MENLO PARK CA 94025
Lang Matthew officer: General Counsel & Corp. Secy. C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC. 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, 9TH FLOOR BRISBANE CA 94005
Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd. 10 percent owner 27-1, SHINKAWA 2-CHOME CHUO-KU TOKYO M0 104-8260
Sumitovant Biopharma Ltd. 10 percent owner C/O ROIVANT SCIENCES, INC. 320 WEST 37TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10018
Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma Co Ltd 10 percent owner 60 WALL STREET NEW YORK NY 10005
Seely Lynn director, officer: Principal Executive Officer 501 2ND STREET SUITE 211 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Sablich Kim officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC. 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY BRISBANE CA 94005
Nomura Hiroshi director C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC. 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY BRISBANE CA 94005
Roivant Sciences Ltd. 10 percent owner CLARENDON HOUSE 2 CHURCH STREET HAMILTON D0 HM11
Torti Frank director 2855 SAND HILL ROAD MENLO PARK CA 94025

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