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Virtus Dividend, Interest & Premium Strategy Fund Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Virtus Dividend, Interest & Premium Strategy Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Virtus Dividend, Interest & Premium Strategy Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Virtus Dividend, Interest & Premium Strategy Fund Business Description

Virtus Dividend, Interest & Premium Strategy Fund logo
Industry
Financial Services » Asset Management NAICS : 523991 SIC : 6733
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
101 Munson Street, Greenfield, MA, USA, 01301
Virtus Dividend, Interest & Premium Strategy Fund is a Massachusetts-based business trust. Its primary investment objective is to seek current income and gains, with a secondary objective of long-term capital appreciation. The fund pursues its investment objectives by investing in a diversified portfolio of dividend-paying common stocks and income-producing convertible securities.
Executives
Mowrey John R. other: Portfolio Manager 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019
Oliver Thomas W Jr other: Affiliated Person 2121 SAN JACINTO DRIVE DALLAS TX 75201
Pushpaharan Gem other: Affiliated Person 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019
Viggiano John other: Affiliated Person 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019
Cogan Sarah E director 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019
Macleod James S director 250 E KILBOURN AVE MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Parker Jeffrey D other: See Remarks 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10105
Holt Erick director 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019
Ruckman Craig officer: Assistant Secretary 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019
Rappaport Alan director C/O PIMCO 650 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Magnuson Paul A other: Portfolio Manager 2121 SAN JACINTO, SUITE 1840 DALLAS TX 75201
Mildner Heiko other: Affiliated Person 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019
Thompson Kathleen C. other: Affiliated Person 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019
Fischer Ben J other: Portfolio Manager 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019
Grau William other: SEE REMARKS C/O ALLIANZ GLOBAL INVESTORS U.S. LLC 1633 BROADWAY NEW YORK NY 10019

Virtus Dividend, Interest & Premium Strategy Fund Headlines

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