SELECT id, `name`, primary_key, `key`, treemapgroup, name_cn, zacks_table_name, compare_key, compare_display_name from gurufocu_main.financial_definition where termpagedisplay=1 and `key` = 'predictability_rank' NGVT (Ingevity) Predictability Rank
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Ingevity Corp (NYSE:NGVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Ingevity (Ingevity) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ingevity Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Ingevity Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ingevity's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Ingevity (Ingevity) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Ingevity Corp (NYSE:NGVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CCF HWKN OEC SCL MTX ECVT KRO WTTR KOP MATV LIN XPAR:AI APD SHW ECL SHSE:600309 XSWX:SIKA BOM:500820 DD XSWX:GIVN
Traded in Other Exchanges
IGX:Germany
Address
4920 O'Hear Avenue, Suite 400, North Charleston, SC, USA, 29405
Website
https://www.ingevity.com
Ingevity Corp is a chemical manufacturer based in the United States. It conducts its operations through two segments, namely Performance Chemicals and Performance Materials. The bulk of its revenue is generated by the Performance Chemicals segment which deals with the manufacture and sale of specialty chemicals which find their use in a range of processes such as asphalt paving, oil exploration and production, agrochemicals, adhesives, lubricants, and publication inks. The Performance Materials segment, on the other hand, focusses on automotive carbon products used in automobiles. The Company sells its products worldwide, with special emphasis on North America.
Executives
Christine Stunyo officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer 4920 O'HEAR AVENUE, SUITE 400, NORTH CHARLESTON SC 29405
White Richard Allen Jr officer: SVP, Perf Chem and Pres, ISPT 4920 O'HEAR AVE, SUITE 400, NORTH CHARLESTON SC 29405
Phillip John Platt officer: VP, CAO & Corporate Controller 5255 VIRGINIA AVE, NORTH CHARLESTON SC 29406
Woodcock Stuart Edward Jr. officer: EVP, President Perf Materials 5255 VIRGINIA AVE, NORTH CHARLESTON SC 29406
Bruce D. Hoechner director 2225 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224
Erik Spencer Ripple officer: Chief Growth & Innov Officer 4920 O'HEAR AVENUE, SUITE 400, NORTH CHARLESTON SC 29405
Benjamin G. Wright director 4920 O'HEAR AVENUE, SUITE 400, NORTH CHARLESTON SC 29405
William J Slocum director C/O INCLUSIVE CAPITAL PARTNERS, L.P., 1170 GORGAS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
J Michael Fitzpatrick director C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP, PO BOX 14662, READING PA 19612-4662
Diane H. Gulyas director C/O EXPEDITORS, 1015 THIRD AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98104
Jean S Blackwell director
Frederick J Lynch director C/O MASONITE INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 201 NORTH FRANKLIN ST., SUITE 300, TAMPA FL 33602
Luis M Fernandez-moreno director ASHLAND INC., 8145 BLAZER DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Karen G Narwold director ALBEMARLE CORPORATION, 4250 CONGRESS ST, SUITE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28209
Steven Paul Hulme officer: SVP, Perf Chem and Pres, EP 4920 O'HEAR AVE, SUITE 400, NORTH CHARLESTON SC 29405