Nelnet (Nelnet) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2003. Start your Free Trial

What is Nelnet Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nelnet Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nelnet Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Nelnet's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Nelnet (Nelnet) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Nelnet Inc (NYSE:NNI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NIJ:Germany

Address

121 South 13th Street, Suite 100, Lincoln, NE, USA, 68508

Website

https://www.nelnet.com

Nelnet Inc is a United States based company engaged in these five segments; Loan Servicing and Systems focuses on student and consumer loan origination services and servicing, loan origination and servicing-related technology solutions, and outsourcing business services, Education Technology, Services, and Payment Processing provides education services, payment technology, and community management solutions for K-12 schools, institutions, churches, and businesses, Asset Generation and Management Includes the acquisition and management of student and other loan assets, Nelnet Bank focuses on the private education and unsecured consumer loan markets, and Communications provides fiber optic service for internet, telephone, and television services.

Executives

William J Munn	officer: Secy, Chief Legal Off, Gen Cou	121 S. 13TH STREET, SUITE 100, LINCOLN NE 68508
Van Deun Jona M	director	121 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 100, LINCOLN NE 68508
Dan D Muhleisen	10 percent owner	6321 DOECREEK CIRCLE, LINCOLN NE 68516
Preeta D Bansal	director	121 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 100, LINCOLN NE 68508
David S Graff	director	121 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 100, LINCOLN NE 68508
Kimberly Kay Rath	director	121 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 100, LINCOLN NE 68508
Kathleen Anne Farrell	director	121 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 100, LINCOLN NE 68508
Matthew W Dunlap	director, officer: Chief Business Develop. Off.	121 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 100, LINCOLN NE 68508
Magnolia Capital Fund, Lp	other: See remarks	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Magnolia Group, Llc	other: See remarks	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Adam K Peterson	director, other: See below	1601 DODGE STREET, SUITE 3300, OMAHA NE 68102
Shelby J Butterfield	10 percent owner	121 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 100, LINCOLN NE 68508
Michael S Dunlap	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, Co-Chief Ex. Officer	121 SOUTH 13TH STREET, SUITE 100, LINCOLN NE 68508
Joann M Martin	director	6221 ANDREW COURT, LINCOLN NE 68512
Angie Mulheisen	10 percent owner	3643 S 48TH STREET P O BOX 82535, LINCOLN NE 68501-2535