Quanex Building Products (Quanex Building Products) Predictability Rank

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What is Quanex Building Products Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Quanex Building Products Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Quanex Building Products (Quanex Building Products) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Quanex Building Products Corp (NYSE:NX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4Q2:Germany

Address

945 Bunker Hill Road, Suite 900, Houston, TX, USA, 77024

Website

https://www.quanex.com

Quanex Building Products Corp is a manufacturer of components sold to original equipment manufacturers in the building products industry. It manufactures engineered products like window and door components that include flexible insulating glass spacers, extruded vinyl profiles, window and door screens, solar panel sealants and precision-formed metal and wood products among others. Its three operating segments are North American Fenestration being the key revenue driver, European Fenestration, and North American Cabinet Components. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

Curtis M Stevens	director	LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORPORATION, 414 UNION STREET, SUITE 1910, NASHVILLE TN 37219
Susan F Davis	director
William C Griffiths	director	C/O SPX CORPORATION, 13515 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Paul Cornett	officer: SVP General Counsel, Secretary	1800 W LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77027
Karen Ettredge	officer: VP, Controller	1800 W LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77027
Bradley E. Hughes	director	2420 BRADWAY BOULEVARD, BLOOMFIELD VILLAGE MI 48301
Jason Lippert	director	C/O LIPPERT COMPONENTS INC, 2375 TAMIAMI TRAIL NORTH STE 11, NAPLES FL 34103
George Laverne Wilson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1800 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77027
Kimberley Garcia	officer: VP, CHRO	1800 W LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77027
Meredith W. Mendes	director	2901 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Scott M. Zuehlke	officer: VP, IR & Treasurer	1800 W LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77027
Joseph D Rupp	director	QUANEX BUILDING PRODUCTS CORPORATION, 1800 W LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77027
Waltz William E Jr.	director	16100 SOUTH LATHROP AVENUE, HARVEY IL 60426
Mark A Livingston	officer: VP CAO Controller	2105 CITY WEST BLVD., SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77042
Kevin P Delaney	officer: SVP-Gen. Counsel & Secretary	1900 WEST LOOP SOUTH SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77027