Prologis (Prologis) Predictability Rank

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What is Prologis Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Prologis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Prologis (Prologis) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Prologis Inc (NYSE:PLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PLDGP.PFD:USA PLD:Mexico 1PLD:Italy POJN:Germany POJN:Germany P1LD34:Brazil

Address

Pier 1, Bay 1, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94111

Website

https://www.prologis.com

Prologis was formed by the June 2011 merger of AMB Property and Prologis Trust. The company develops, acquires, and operates around 1.2 billion square feet of high-quality industrial and logistics facilities across the globe. The company also has a strategic capital business segment that has around $60 billion of third-party AUM. The company is organized into four global divisions (Americas, Europe, Asia, and other Americas) and operates as a real estate investment trust.

Executives

James B. Connor	director	600 E 96TH ST, #100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
George L Fotiades	director	281 SUMMIT AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Daniel Letter	officer: President	PIER 1, BAY 1, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
David P Oconnor	director	C/O HIGH RISE, 325 NORTH AVENUE E, WESTFIELD NJ 07090
Avid Modjtabai	director	420 MONTGOMERY STREET, 12TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Lyons Irving F Iii	director	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC., 925 E. MEADOW DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Timothy D Arndt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PIER 1, BAY 1, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
William D Zollars	director	10777 BARKLEY, PO BOX 7563, OVERLAND PARK KS 66207-0563
Hamid R Moghadam	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	PIER 1, BAY 1, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Lydia H Kennard	director	155 N LAKE AVE, PASADENA CA 91101
Jeffrey L Skelton	director
Eugene F Reilly	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O AMB PROPERTY CORP, PIER I BAY 1, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Thomas S Olinger	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMB PROPERTY CORPORATION, PIER 1, BAY 1, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Philip L Hawkins	director	C/O CORPORATE OFFICE PROPERTIES TRUST, 6711 COLUMBIA GATEWAY DRIVE, #300, COLUMBIA MD 21046
Edward S Nekritz	officer: Chief Legal Off./Gen. Counsel	KATE MEADE, 14100 E 35TH PL, AURORA CO 80011