Quanta Services (Quanta Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Quanta Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Quanta Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Quanta Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Quanta Services (Quanta Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Quanta Services Inc (NYSE:PWR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

QAA:Germany QAA:Germany Q1UA34:Brazil

Address

277 North Loop West, Houston, TX, USA, 77008

Website

https://www.quantaservices.com

Quanta Services is a leading provider of specialty contracting services, delivering comprehensive infrastructure solutions for the electric and gas utility, communications, pipeline, and energy industries in the United States, Canada, and Australia. Quanta reports its results under three reportable segments: electric power, renewables infrastructure, and underground utility and infrastructure. In 2021, the company acquired Blattner, a provider of comprehensive engineering, procurement, and construction solutions to customers in the renewable energy industry.

Executives

Donald Wayne	officer: EVP and General Counsel	2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008-1044
Raul Javier Valentin	director	ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Dorothy Upperman	officer: VP Tax	2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008-1044
Bernard Fried	director	QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008
Worthing F Jackman	director	QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008
Ducey Gerald A Jr	officer: Pres. - Strategic Operations	2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008
Austin Earl C. Jr.	director, officer: President, CEO and COO	QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008-1044
James Redgie Probst	officer: President - Electric Power	2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008-1044
Derrick A Jensen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 2600, HOUSTON TX 77056-6175
Robert Scott Rowe	director	1333 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Vincent D Foster	director	QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008
Paul Nobel	officer: Chief Accounting Officer & VP	C/O QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008-1044
John Michal Conaway	director	QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 2600, HOUSTON TX 77056-6175
Holli C. Ladhani	director	2800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 4500, HOUSTON TX 77056
Nicholas M Grindstaff	officer: VP - Finance and Treasurer	QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2800 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 2600, HOUSTON TX 77056-6175