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Brookfield Real Assetsome Fund (Brookfield Real Assetsome Fund) Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Brookfield Real Assetsome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Brookfield Real Assetsome Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Brookfield Real Assetsome Fund (Brookfield Real Assetsome Fund) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
250 Vesey Street, 15th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10281-1023
Brookfield Real Assets Income Fund Inc. is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek a high total return, through high current income and secondarily, through the growth of capital. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in the real asset class, which includes the following: Real Estate Securities; Infrastructure Securities; and Natural Resources Securities (collectively, Real Asset Companies and Issuers). The Firm manages separate accounts, registered funds, and opportunistic strategies for institutional and individual clients, including financial institutions, public and private pension plans, insurance companies, endowments and foundations, sovereign wealth funds, and high-net-worth investors.
Executives
Heather S. Goldman director C/O BROOKFIELD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC, BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY STREET, 15FL, NEW YORK NY 10281-1023
Christopher Janus other: PORTFOLIO MANAGER BROOKFIELD PUBLIC SECURITIES GROUP LLC, BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY ST., 15FL,, NEW YORK NY 10281
Gaal Isaac Surugeon other: PORTFOLIO MANAGER C/O BROOKFIELD PUBLIC SECURITIES GROUP, BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY ST., 15TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10281
Louis P Salvatore director 7 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Brookfield Investment Management Inc. other: Fund's Adviser BROOKFIELD PLACE, 225 LIBERTY STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Justin Charles Guichard other: Portfolio Manager 333 S. GRAND AVE., 28TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Wright William H Ii director C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, 100 PEARL STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103
Craig Noble other: CEO & PM of the Adviser C/O BROOKFIELD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC, BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY ST, 15TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10281-1023
Craig Ruckman officer: Fund's Secretary 1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Daniel Gary Parker other: Portfolio Manager BROOKFIELD PUBLIC SECURITIES GROUP LLC, BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY STREET, 15TH, NEW YORK NY 10281-1023
Alexis I Rieger officer: Secretary C/O BROOKFIELD INVESTMENT MANAGAMNET INC, BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY ST., 15TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10281-1023
Thomas Doyle Peeney officer: Secretary BROOKFIELD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC., BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY ST., 15TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10281
Brian Thomas Hourihan other: Adviser's CCO BROOKFIELD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC., BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY ST., 15TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10281
Casey Tushaus officer: Fund's Assistant Treasurer BROOKFIELD PUBLIC SECURITIES GROUP LLC, BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY ST., 15TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10281
Mohamed Rasul officer: Fund's Assistant Treasurer BROOKFIELD PUBLIC SECURITIES GROUP LLC, BROOKFIELD PLACE, 250 VESEY ST., 15TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10281

Brookfield Real Assetsome Fund (Brookfield Real Assetsome Fund) Headlines