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Spire Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Utilities - Regulated Gas subindustry, Spire's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Spire Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Utilities - Regulated industry and Utilities sector, Spire's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Spire's Predictability Rank falls into.



Spire Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Spire Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Spire's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Spire Business Description

Spire logo
Industry
Utilities » Utilities - Regulated NAICS : 221210 SIC : 4924
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
700 Market Street, Saint Louis, MO, USA, 63101
Spire Inc is a public utility holding company with two key business segments: Gas Utility and Gas Marketing. The Gas Utility segment includes the regulated operations of Laclede Gas, Alabama Gas Corporation (Alagasco), and EnergySouth Inc. The Utilities businesses operations include the purchase, retail, distribution, and sale of natural gas in Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi. The Gas Utility segment generates a majority of the company's revenue but is subject to seasonal fluctuations. The Gas Marketing segment includes Laclede Energy Resources, Inc, whose operations include the marketing of natural gas and related activities on a non-regulated basis.
Executives
Hampton Joseph B. officer: President, AL & MS 700 MARKET STREET ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Woodard Adam W. officer: Treasurer 700 MARKET STREET ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Rasche Steven P officer: Executive Vice President 12442 CINEMA LANE SAINT LOUIS MO 63127
Van Lokeren Mary Ann director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: VAN LOKEREN MARY ANN a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Fogarty Maria V. director 720 OLIVE ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Jones Rob L. director 555 EAST AIRTEX DRIVE HOUSTON TX 77073
Borer Mark A director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BORER MARK A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Glotzbach Edward L director C/O VISUAL NETWORKS INC 2092 GAITHER ROAD ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Newberry Brenda D director 720 OLIVE STREET ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Schwartz Stephen S director 46897 BAYSIDE PARKWAY FREMONT CA 94538
Stupp John P Jr director STUPP JOHN P JR 120 SOUTH CENTRAL AVE STE 1650 ST LOUIS MO 63105
Carter Scott B. officer: SVP, COO of Distribution Ops 700 MARKET STREET ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Sitherwood Suzanne director, officer: President & CEO 700 MARKET STREET SAINT LOUIS MO 63101
Darrell Mark C officer: Senior Vice President 720 OLIVE STREET SAINT LOUIS MO 63101
Geiselhart Michael C officer: Senior Vice President 720 OLIVE STREET SAINT LOUIS MO 63101

Spire Headlines

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