Textron (Textron) Predictability Rank

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What is Textron Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Textron Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Textron Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Textron (Textron) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Textron Inc (NYSE:TXT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TXT:Germany TXT:Germany

Address

40 Westminster Street, Providence, RI, USA, 02903

Website

https://www.textron.com

Textron is a conglomerate that mostly designs, manufactures, and services a range of specialty aircraft including small jets, propeller-driven airplanes, helicopters, and tilt-rotor aircraft. The firm's aviation segment manufactures and services Cessna and Beechcraft planes. Bell is a helicopter and tilt-rotor manufacturer and servicer for both commercial and military customers. Textron Systems produces uncrewed aircraft and armored vehicles for the military market as well as aircraft simulators and training for the commercial and military markets. Textron Industrial contains the Kautex business that manufactures plastic fuel tanks for conventional and hybrid motor vehicles and other subsidiaries that produce specialized vehicles such as golf carts, snowmobiles, and all-terrain vehicles.

Executives

R Kerry Clark	director	C/O THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY, ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Michael X Garrett	director	6521 CHIPSTEAD LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Frank T Connor	officer: Executive VP and CFO	40 WESTMINSTER STREET, PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Scott C Donnelly	officer: Executive VP and COO
Thomas A Kennedy	director	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Richard F Ambrose	director	6801 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20817
Mark S Bamford	officer: VP and Corporate Controller	40 WESTMINSTER STREET, PROVIDENCE RI 02903
E Robert Lupone	officer: EVP, General Counsel and Secy	40 WESTMINSTER STREET, PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Kathleen M Bader	director	2030 DOW CENTER, MIDLAND MI 49640
Nowell Lionel L Iii	director	401 NORTH MAIN STREET, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101
Julie G Duffy	officer: Executive VP - Human Resources	40 WESTMINSTER STREET, PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Deborah L James	director	1710 SAIC DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Ralph D Heath	director	6801 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20817
Maria T Zuber	director	40 WESTMINSTER STREET, PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Cheryl H Johnson	officer: Executive VP, Human Resources	40 WESTMINSTER STREET, PROVIDENCE RI 02903