Ventas (Ventas) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ventas Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ventas Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ventas (Ventas) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Ventas Inc (NYSE:VTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VEN:Germany V1TA34:Brazil

Address

353 North Clark Street, Suite 3300, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654

Website

https://www.ventasreit.com

Ventas owns a diversified healthcare portfolio of nearly 1,400 in-place properties spread across the senior housing, medical office, hospital, life science, and skilled nursing/post-acute care. The portfolio includes over 40 properties in Canada and the United Kingdom as the company looks for additional investment opportunities in countries with mature healthcare systems that operate similarly to the United States. The firm also owns mortgages and other loans, contributing about 3% of net operating income.

Executives

Walter C Rakowich	director	14100 E 35TH PL, AURORA CO 80011
Debra A Cafaro	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	353 N. CLARK STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Sumit Roy	director	600 LA TERRAZA BOULEVARD, ESCONDIDO CA 92025
Michael J Embler	director	C/O NMI HOLDINGS, INC., 2100 POWELL STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Robert D. Reed	director	47 DONALD DRIVE, ORINDA CA 94563
James D Shelton	director	3901 TURTLE CREEK BLVD. #12, DALLAS TX 75219
Richard I Gilchrist	director	5950 SHERRY LANE, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75225
Robert F Probst	officer: EVP, CFO and Acting CAO	353 N. CLARK STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Gregory R Liebbe	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	500 N. HURSTBOURNE PARKWAY, SUITE 200, LOUISVILLE KY 40222
Maurice S Smith	director	353 N. CLARK STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Marguerite M Nader	director	2S601 AVENUE LA TOURS, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Carey S. Roberts	officer: EVP and GC	C/O VENTAS, INC., 353 N. CLARK STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60654
James Justin Hutchens	officer: EVP Sr Housing North America	C/O VENTAS, INC., 353 N. CLARK STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60654
John D. Cobb	officer: SVP & Chief Investment Officer	353 N. CLARK STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Sean P. Nolan	director	C/O INTERMUNE, INC., 3280 BAYSHORE BLVD., BRISBANE CA 94005