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West Pharmaceutical Services Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Competitive Comparison

For the Medical Instruments & Supplies subindustry, West Pharmaceutical Services's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


West Pharmaceutical Services Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Medical Devices & Instruments industry and Healthcare sector, West Pharmaceutical Services's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where West Pharmaceutical Services's Predictability Rank falls into.

West Pharmaceutical Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

West Pharmaceutical Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of West Pharmaceutical Services's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

West Pharmaceutical Services Business Description

West Pharmaceutical Services logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
530 Herman O. West Drive, Exton, PA, USA, 19341-0645
West Pharmaceutical Services is a Pennsylvania-based medical supplies company that operates as a key supplier to firms in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and generic drug industries. West develops, manufactures, and distributes elastomer-based supplies for the containment and administration of injectable drugs, including basic equipment such as syringes, stoppers, and plungers, along with somewhat more complicated devices including auto-injectors and other self-injection platforms. The company reports in two segments: proprietary products (77% of 2020 sales) and contract-manufactured products (23%). It generates 55% of its revenue from international markets and 45% from the United States.
Zenner Patrick J director C/O DENDRITE INTERNATIONAL INC. 1405/1425 ROUTE 206 SOUTH BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Montecalvo David A officer: SVP, Glob Ops and Supply Chain 530 HERMAN O. WEST DRIVE EXTON PA 19341
Birkett Bernard officer: Sr VP, CFO & Treasurer 1600 WEST MERIT PARKWAY SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Green Eric Mark director, officer: President & CEO 530 HERMAN O. WEST DRIVE EXTON PA 19341
Abraham Silji officer: Chief Digital & Trans Officer 5000 TOWN CENTER U SOUTHFIELD MI 48075
Winters Chad officer: VP, CAO & Controller 530 HERMAN O. WEST DRIVE EXTON PA 19341
Feehery William F director 530 HERMAN O. WEST DRIVE EXTON PA 19341
Johnson Paula A director 530 HERMAN O. WEST DRIVE EXTON PA 19341
Michels Douglas A director 220 EAST FIRST STREET BETHLEHEM PA 18015
Lai Goldman Myla director 3595 JOHN HOPKINS COURT SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Keller Deborah L director 530 HERMAN O. WEST DRIVE EXTON PA 19341
Buthman Mark A director P O BOX 619100 DALLAS TX 752619100
Friel Robert F director 940 WINTER STREET WALTHAM MA 02451

West Pharmaceutical Services Headlines

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