Realtyome (Realtyome) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Realtyome Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Realtyome (Realtyome) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Realty Income Corp (NYSE:O) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

O:Mexico RY6:Germany RY6:Germany RY6:Germany R1IN34:Brazil

Address

11995 El Camino Real, San Diego, CA, USA, 92130

Website

https://www.realtyincome.com

Realty Income owns roughly 13,100 properties, most of which are freestanding, single-tenant, triple-net-leased retail properties. Its properties are located in 49 states and Puerto Rico and are leased to 250 tenants from 47 industries. Recent acquisitions have added industrial, gaming, office, manufacturing, and distribution properties, which make up roughly 17% of revenue.

Executives

A. Larry Chapman	director	600 LA TERRAZA BOULEVARD, ESCONDIDO CA 92025
Neil Abraham	officer: EVP, CIO	11995 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Gregory J. Whyte	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	C/O TIER REIT, INC., 5950 SHERRY LANE, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75225
Mary Hogan Preusse	director	C/O KIMCO REALTY CORP., 3333 NEW HYDE PARK ROAD, NEW HYDE PARK NY 11042
Priscilla Almodovar	director	45 WEST 10TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Shannon Kehle	officer: EVP, Chief People Officer	11995 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Ronald Merriman	director	6175 NANCY RIDGE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Gregory Mclaughlin	director	220 WEST CREST STREET, ESCONDIDO CA 92025
Jacqueline Valerie Brady	director	53 CREEKVIEW LANE, YARDLEY PA 19067
Michelle Bushore	officer: EVP, CLO, GC & Secretary	11995 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Priya Cherian Huskins	director	600 LA TERRAZA BOULEVARD, ESCONDIDO CA 92025
Christie B. Kelly	director	600 E. 96TH ST., #100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Paul M Meurer	officer: EVP CFO & Treasure
Michael R Pfeiffer	officer: EVP Gen. Counsel & Sec.
Benjamin N Fox	officer: SVP, Asset & Port. Mgmt.	11995 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130