Orgenesis (Orgenesis) Predictability Rank

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What is Orgenesis Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Orgenesis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Orgenesis (Orgenesis) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Orgenesis Inc (NAS:ORGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

45O:Germany

Address

20271 Goldenrod Lane, Germantown, MD, USA, 20876

Website

https://www.orgenesis.com

Orgenesis Inc is a biotech company working to unlock the potential of cell and gene therapies. It is focused on autologous therapies, with processes and systems that are developed for each therapy using a closed and automated processing system approach that is validated for compliant production near the patient for treatment of the patient at the point of care (POCare). The Company's business includes two reporting segments: Morgenesis and Therapies.

Executives

Elliot Maltz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GELESIS, INC., 501 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 6102, BOSTON MA 02116
Jacob Safier	10 percent owner	C/O THE WOLFSON GROUP, ONE STATE STREET PLAZA 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004
Efrat Assa Kunik	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O ORGENESIS INC., 20271 GOLDENROD LANE, GERMANTOWN MD 20876
David Sidransky	director	JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, 720 RUTLAND AVENUE, BALTIMORE MD 21205
Mario Philips	director	C/O ATMI, INC, DANBURY CT 06810
Sarah Ferber	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	17B HAHASKALA STREET, TEL AVIV L3 67890
Guy Yachin	director	7 ORCHARD WAY N, POTOMAC MD 20854
Yaron Adler	director	4 HA'NECHOSHET ST., RAMAT HA'CHAYAL, TEL AVIV L3 69710
Vered Caplan	officer: CEO	20 HA'ETZEL STREET, PO BOX 9118 RAMAT EFAL, KIRYAT ONO L3 55280
Universite Libre De Bruxelles	10 percent owner	AVENUE F, ROOSEVELT, 50, BRUSSELS C9 1050
Olivier Belenger	10 percent owner	DIEWEG, 69, BRUSSELS C9 1070
Ii Sa Theodorus	10 percent owner	ALLEE DE LA RECHERCHE, 12, BRUSSELS C9 1070
Sca Theodorus	10 percent owner	ALLEE DE LA RECHERCHE, 12, BRUSSELS C9 1070
Denis Bedoret	officer: See Remarks	48, RUE AUGUSTE PICCARD, GOSSELIES C9 6041
Ashish Nanda	director	2301, 23RD FLOOR, TIFFANY TOWERS, CLUSTER W, JLT, DUBAI, UAE, DUBAI C0 4452