Selectis Health (Selectis Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Selectis Health Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Selectis Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Selectis Health (Selectis Health) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Selectis Health Inc (OTCPK:GBCS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8480 E. Orchard Road, Suite 4900, Greenwood Village, CO, USA, 80111

Website

https://www.selectis.com

Selectis Health Inc owns and operates medical care facilities in the healthcare industry. It operates assisted living, independent living and skilled nursing facilities in Arkansas, Georgia, Ohio, and Oklahoma providing a wide array of living services, speech, occupational, physical therapies, social services, and other rehabilitation and healthcare services.

Executives

Lance Baller	director	10173 BRIARGROVE WAY, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80126
David J. Furstenberg	director	1226 WIND CHIME DR., WATERFORD MI 48327
Brandon Thall	officer: CFO	8480 E. ORCHARD ROAD, STE. 4900, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Christopher R. Barker	officer: President and COO	8480 E. ORCHARD ROAD, STE. 4900, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Neuman Clifford L Esq	director, 10 percent owner	6800 NORTH 79TH STREET, SUITE # 200, NIWOT CO 80503
Downs John H Jr	director	PO BOX 723040, ATLANTA GA 30339
Andrew L Sink	director	P O BOX 531124, BIRMINGHAM AL 35253
Joshua Mandell	director	C/O GLOBAL HEALTHCARE REIT, INC., 8480 E. ORCHARD RD., STE. 4900, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Adam Desmond	director	PO BOX 2036, CARBONDALE CO 81623
Jacob Taylor	officer: Secretary	6800 N. 79TH ST., STE. 200, NIWOT CO 80503
Sandra Lee Kuwica	officer: Vice President of Finance	C/O GLOBAL HEALTHCARE REIT, INC., 8480 E. ORCHARD RD., STE. 3600, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Steven Mark Bathgate	director	5350 S ROSLYN, SUITE 380, ENGLEWOOD CO 80111
Philip S Scarborough	officer: Chief Financial Officer	595 ATLANTA STREET, SUITE D, ROSWELL GA 30075
Christopher F Brogdon	director, officer: President	2 BUCKHEAD PLAZA, 3050 PEACHTREE ROAD, SUITE 570, ATLANTA GA 30305
Brogdon Connie B	other: spouse of Director/President	6000 LAKE FORREST DR, STE 200, ATLANTA GA 30328