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Sonic Foundry Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Software - Application subindustry, Sonic Foundry's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Sonic Foundry Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Sonic Foundry's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Sonic Foundry's Predictability Rank falls into.



Sonic Foundry Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Sonic Foundry Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Sonic Foundry's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Sonic Foundry Business Description

Sonic Foundry logo
Industry
Technology » Software NAICS : 511210 SIC : 7372
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
222 W. Washington Avenue, Madison, WI, USA, 53703
Sonic Foundry Inc is engaged in the business of providing video enterprise solutions and services for the digital-first, distance learning, and corporate communications market. It offers video capture, management, and Webcasting solutions in education, business, and government. The company also offers video solutions, including Mediasite Video Platform, Mediasite Video Cloud, Mediasite Capture Solutions, Mediasite Events, Mediasite Services, and Mediasite Customer Care. The company has a geographical presence in the United States, Europe, and the Middle East, Asia, and other places.
Executives
Burish Mark D director, 10 percent owner HURLEY, BURISH, MILLIKEN S.C. 301 NORTH BROOM STREET MADISON WI 53703
Kopko Frederick H Jr director 4901 S ELLIS AVE CHICAGO IL 60615
Murphy Nelson A director 2300 W INNES ST SALISBURY NC 28144
Wiegand Brian director 8215 GREENWAY BLVD, SUITE 340 MIDDLETON WI 53562
Slayton David director 701 WASHINGTON AVE N. SUITE #400 MINNEAPOLIS WI 55401
Norregaard Michael officer: Chief Executive Officer 4891 ENCHANTED VALLEY ROAD MIDDLETON WI 53562
Burish Andrew D. 10 percent owner 8020 EXCELSIOR DRIVE MADISON WI 53717
Minor Kenneth A officer: Chief Financial Officer PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: MINOR KENNETH A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Weis Gary director, officer: Chief Executive Officer & CTO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: WEIS GARY a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Lipps Robert M officer: Executive Vice President Sales 222 W. WASHINGTON AVE. MADISON WI 53703
Kleinman David director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KLEINMAN DAVID a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Peercy Paul S director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: PEERCY PAUL S a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Michael Janowiak director 549 W RANDOLPH #600 CHICAGO IL 60651
Buinevicius Rimas director, officer: Chairman & Strategy Officer PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BUINEVICIUS RIMAS a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Schmidt Monty director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SCHMIDT MONTY a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
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