Plains All American Pipeline LP (Plains All American Pipeline LP) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Plains All American Pipeline LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Plains All American Pipeline LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Plains All American Pipeline LP (Plains All American Pipeline LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Plains All American Pipeline LP (NAS:PAA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

WES AM ENLC DTM ETRN FRO STNG PAGP VNOM NS TSX:ENB EPD ET WMB OKE MPLX TSX:TRP KMI LNG TRGP

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

333 Clay Street, Suite 1600, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.plainsallamerican.com

Plains All American provides transportation, storage, processing, fractionation, and marketing services for crude oil, refined products, natural gas liquids, liquefied petroleum gas, and related products. Plains' assets span the United States and Alberta, Canada, but are heavily concentrated in the Permian Basin.

Executives

Jeremy L. Goebel	officer: EVP & CCO	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Ellen Desanctis	director	12326 OLD OAKS, HOUSTON TX 77024
Willie Cw Chiang	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	370 17TH STREET, SUITE 2775, DENVER CO 80202
Chris Herbold	officer: Sr. VP Finance and CAO	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Richard K. Mcgee	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec.	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77002
Al Swanson	officer: EVP & CFO	333 CLAY STREET, # 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Kevin S Mccarthy	director	C/O KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS, LP, 1800 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SECOND FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Chris R. Chandler	officer: EVP & COO	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Harry N Pefanis	director, officer: President	333 CLAY STREET, STE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Plains Gp Holdings Lp	director, 10 percent owner	333 CLAY ST, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Paa Gp Holdings Llc	director, 10 percent owner	333 CLAY ST, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Plains All American Gp Llc	director, 10 percent owner	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Plains Aap, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Chris Temple	director	3953 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 180, DALLAS TX 75219
Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors Lp	director, other: See remarks	2121 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067