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PAR Technology (PAR Technology) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


PAR Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PAR Technology Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PAR Technology's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


PAR Technology (PAR Technology) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
PAR Technology Park, 8383 Seneca Turnpike, New Hartford, NY, USA, 13413-4991
PAR Technology Corp together with its subsidiaries provides management technology solutions including software, hardware, and related services, integral to the point-of-sale infrastructure and task management, information gathering, assimilation and communication services. It has two segments. Restaurant/ Retail segment provides point-of-sale and management technology solutions such as hardware, software and integrated technical solutions to the restaurant and retail industries. Government segment provides intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions and mission systems support. The company derives the majority of its revenues from the Restaurant/ Retail segment.
Executives
Douglas Gregory Rauch director 54 WILDE ROAD, WABAN MA 02468
Michael Anthony Steenberge officer: Chief Accounting Officer PAR TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, 8383 SENECA TURNPIKE, NEW HARTFORD NY 13413
Cathy A King officer: VP, GEN COUNSEL & CORP SEC 5424 LAKE HOUSE ROAD, BRANTINGHAM NY 13312
Michael David Nelson officer: President of Subsidiary 747 GRAND WOOD CT., SPRINGBORO OH 45066
Raju Malhotra officer: CHF PRODUCT & TECH OFFICER 745 BROMFIELD RD, HILLSBOROUGH CA 94010
Narinder Singh director 4096 PIEDMONT AVENUE, #231, OAKLAND CA 94618
Keith Pascal director 1520 FOREST AVE., HIGHLAND PARK IL 60035
Sammon John W Jr director 8383 SENECA TURNPIKE, NEW HARTFORD NY 13413
Bryan A Menar officer: VP & Chief Financial Officer 8383 SENECA TURNPIKE, NEW HARTFORD NY 13413
Matthew R Cicchinelli officer: President, PGSC & RRC 8383 SENECA TURNPIKE, NEW HARTFORD NY 13413
Donald H Foley director, officer: President & CEO 8383 SENECA TURNPIKE, NEW HARTFORD NY 13413
Adam D Wyden 10 percent owner 1133 BROADWAY, SUITE 719, NEW YORK NY 10010
Adw Capital Management, Llc 10 percent owner 6431 ALLISON ROAD, MIAMI BEACH FL 33141
Adw Capital Partners, L.p. 10 percent owner 6431 ALLISON ROAD, MIAMI BEACH FL 33141
James C Stoffel director 101 KNOLLWOOD DRIVE, ROCHESTER NY 14618