Insulet (Insulet) Predictability Rank

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What is Insulet Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Insulet Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Insulet Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Insulet (Insulet) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Insulet Corp (NAS:PODD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PODD:Mexico GOV:Germany GOV:Germany

Address

100 Nagog Park, Acton, MA, USA, 01720

Website

https://www.insulet.com

Insulet was founded in 2000 with the goal of making continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion therapy for diabetes easier to use. The result was the Omnipod system, which consists of a small disposable insulin infusion device and that can be operated through a smartphone to control dosage. Since the Omnipod was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 2005, approximately 360,000 insulin-dependent diabetics are using it worldwide.

Executives

Luciana Borio	director	C/O EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 TICE BLVD., SUITE 315, WOODCLIFF LAKE NJ 07677
Shacey Petrovic	officer: CCO	600 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, SUITE 200, BILLERICA MA 01821
Prem Singh	officer: SVP, Global Operations	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 100 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720
James Hollingshead	director	C/O RESMED INC., 9001 SPECTRUM CENTER BOULEVARD, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Wayde D. Mcmillan	officer: EVP, CFO	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 100 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720
Mark N Field	officer: SVP & Chief Technology Officer	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 100 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720
Dan Manea	officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 100 NAGOG PARK, ACTION MA 01720
Michael R Minogue	director	22 CHERRY HILL DR, C/O ABIOMED INC, DANVERS MA 01923
Laetitia Cousin	officer: SVP, Reg, Quality & Compliance	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 100 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720
Charles Alpuche	officer: SVP, Global Manufacturing	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 600 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, SUITE 200, BILLERICA MA 01821
Bret Christensen	officer: SVP and CCO	600 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, SUITE 200, BILLERICA MA 01821
Michael P Spears	officer: SVP, Quality and Regulatory	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 600 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, SUITE 200, BILLERICA MA 01821
Elizabeth H Weatherman	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
David A Lemoine	director	C/O THE L S STARRETT COMPANY, 121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
Sally Crawford	director	C/O HOLOGIC, INC., BEDFORD MA 01730