What is Pilgrims Pride Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Pilgrims Pride Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Pilgrims Pride (Pilgrims Pride) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1770 Promontory Circle, Greeley, CO, USA, 80634-9038
Pilgrim's Pride is the second-largest poultry producer in the U.S. (62% of 2022 sales), the U.K. (28% including other European sales), and Mexico (11%). Its U.K. and European arm also includes pork operations from the 2019 acquisition of Tulip. Pilgrim's sells to chain restaurants, food processors, food distributors, and retail chains. Most of its U.S. and Mexican sales come from fresh chicken, while prepared chicken and pork constitute most of its U.K. and European sales. JBS owns more than 80% of Pilgrim's Pride's outstanding shares, though it failed to acquire the remaining stake in 2021 after a special board committee deemed JBS' offer undervalued Pilgrim's Pride.
Executives
| Batista Filho Wesley Mendonca |
director |
1770 PROMONTORY CIRCLE, GREELEY CO 80634 |
| Matthew R Galvanoni |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
5 WESTBROOK CORPORATE CENTER, WESTBROOK IL 60154 |
| Fabio Sandri |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1770 PROMONTORY CIRCLE, GREELEY CO 80634-9038 |
| Raul Padilla |
director |
C/O BUNGE LTD, 50 MAIN STREET, WHITE PLAINS NY 10606 |
| Maestri Karoleski Joanita Maria |
director |
C/O PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORP, 1770 PROMONTORY CIRCLE, GREELEY CO 80634 |
| Ajay Menon |
director |
C/O CONVERA CORPORATION, 1921 GALLOWS RD., VIENNA VA 22182 |
| Jayson Penn |
officer: CEO |
1770 PROMONTORY CIRCLE, GREELEY CO 80634 |
| Arquimedes Celis |
director |
1770 PROMONTORY CIRCLE, GREELEY CO 80634 |
| Farha Aslam |
director |
1770 N PROMOTORY CIRCLE, GREELEY CO 80634 |
| William W Lovette |
director, officer: CEO and President |
2210 WEST OAKLAWN DRIVE, SPRINGDALE AR 72762 |
| Michael L. Cooper |
director |
4845 US HIGHWAY 271N, PITTSBURG TX 75686 |
| Vasconcellos Wallim Cruz De Jr |
director |
116 RUA VISCONDE DE ITAUNA, 116, RIO DE JANEIRO D5 22460140 |
| David E Bell |
director |
C/O BOSTON ACOUSTICS, INC., 300 JUBILEE DRIVE, PEABODY MA 01960 |
| Charles Macaluso |
director |
|
| Denilson Molina |
director |
1770 PROMONTORY CIRCLE, GREELEY CO 80634 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
PPC has been successfully added to your