Park National (Park National) Predictability Rank

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What is Park National Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Park National Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Park National (Park National) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Park National Corp (AMEX:PRK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

50 North Third Street, P.O. Box 3500, Newark, OH, USA, 43058-3500

Website

http://www.parknationalcorp.com

Park National Corp is a diversified financial services company based in Newark, Ohio, consisting of 11 community banking divisions with more than 100 offices in Ohio and Kentucky. Park National provides banking and other financial services to consumers and businesses.

Executives

Englefield F W Iv	director	50 NORTH THIRD STREET, P O BOX 3500, NEWARK OH 43058-3500
Dan Delawder	director, officer: President and CEO
Miller Daniel Byrd Iii	director	50 N THIRD ST, NEWARK OH 43055
Frederic M Bertley	director	50 N THIRD ST, NEWARK OH 43055
Robert E Oneill	director	50 N THIRD STREET, NEWARK OH 43055
Mark R Ramser	director	50 N THIRD ST, NEWARK OH 43055
Timothy S. Mclain	director	50 NORTH THIRD STREET, PO BOX 3500, NEWARK OH 43058-3500
James R Deroberts	director	50 N THIRD STREET, NEWARK OH 43055
Jason N Judd	director	50 N THIRD ST, NEWARK OH 43055
Leon Zazworsky	director	50 NORTH THIRD STREET, PO BOX 3500, NEWARK OH 43058-3500
Kelly A Edds	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	50 N THIRD STREET, NEWARK OH 43055
Alicia J Hupp	director	50 N THIRD STREET, NEWARK OH 43055
Julia A Sloat	director	1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Brady T Burt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	0015 BENCHMARK ROAD, SUITE 300, P.O. BOX 6580, AVON CO 81620
Matthew R Miller	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	50 NORTH THIRD STREET, NEWARK OH 43055