Phillips 66 (Phillips 66) Predictability Rank

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What is Phillips 66 Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Phillips 66 Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Phillips 66 Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Phillips 66 (Phillips 66) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PSX:Mexico 1PSX:Italy R66:Germany R66:Germany R66:Germany R66:Germany P1SX34:Brazil PSXC:Austria

Address

2331 CityWest Boulevard, Houston, TX, USA, 77042

Website

https://www.phillips66.com

Phillips 66 is an independent refiner with 12 refineries that have a total crude throughput capacity of 1.9 million barrels per day, or mmb/d. In 2023, the Rodeo, California, facility will cease operations and be converted to produce renewable diesel. The midstream segment comprises extensive transportation and NGL processing assets and includes DCP Midstream, which holds 600 mbd of NGL fractionation and 22,000 miles of pipeline. Its CPChem chemical joint venture operates facilities in the United States and the Middle East and primarily produces olefins and polyolefins.

Executives

Zhanna Golodryga	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 10247, BIRMINGHAM AL 35202-0247
Vanessa Allen Sutherland	officer: EVP, GC and Secretary	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Joseph Scott Pruitt	officer: Vice President and Controller	2331 CITYWEST BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77042
Kevin J Mitchell	officer: Exec. VP, Finance and CFO	3010 BRIARPARK DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77042
Timothy D. Roberts	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O PHILLIPS 66 PARTNERS LP, 3010 BRIARPARK DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77042
Greg C. Garland	officer: Chairman, Pres. and CEO-Desig	2331 CITYWEST BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77042
Brian Mandell	officer: Senior Vice President	370 17TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
Gregory Hayes	director	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Paula Ann Johnson	officer: SVP, Gen Counsel & Sec (Desig)	600 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Richard G Harbison	officer: Senior VP, Refining	2331 CITYWEST BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77042
Robert A Herman	officer: Executive Vice President	3010 BRIARPARK DRIVE, 9TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77042
Douglas T Terreson	director	2331 CITYWEST BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77042
Denise R Singleton	director	3100 SANDERS ROAD, SUITE 301, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Mark E Lashier	officer: President and COO	2331 CITYWEST BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77042
Charles M Holley	director